The HEPEX community contributing to EGU22 and IAHS22 – What not to miss!!!

The HEPEX community contributing to EGU22 and IAHS22 – What not to miss!!!

It is finally happening! Soon the community will meet in Vienna and Montpellier and discuss the scientific and operational progress in hydrological forecasting. If you are planning to go and want to meet HEPEX and EC-HEPEX people, here are some tips on the sessions that might interest you. If unfortunately you cannot be there in person, do not worry since we are now in the era of hybrid events. You can simply register and attend the sessions online. Just browse…

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Shifting the focus of uncertainty analysis from parameters to functions

Shifting the focus of uncertainty analysis from parameters to functions

Contributed by Shervan Gharari and Hoshin V. Gupta To construct a working process-based model of an environmental system, modelers make a great many decisions. The model is fundamentally, therefore, an assemblage of hypotheses regarding how the natural system works. Those hypotheses can be categorized into 4 hierarchical levels: Level 1– System Diagram and Conservation Law Hypotheses: in which the boundaries of the system are defined, the ingoing and outgoing fluxes are specified, the fundamental system-level state/latent variables are identified (thereby…

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Exploring the interfaces between meteorology & hydrology: submit your abstract at EMS 2022!

Exploring the interfaces between meteorology & hydrology: submit your abstract at EMS 2022!

Contributed by Fatima Pillosu, session convenor at EMS2022 In order to provide useful forecasts for extreme, complex natural hazards, it is imperative to understand the interactions between the Earth’s atmosphere and its land surface. For example, when a flood forecast is issued, previous soil moisture conditions and future rainfall must be considered as they can modulate the intensity of a flood event. Likewise, vegetation and the moisture available for evaporation must be considered when providing temperature forecasts as they can…

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If you had to build a probabilistic streamflow forecasting chain from scratch, what components would you pick up?

If you had to build a probabilistic streamflow forecasting chain from scratch, what components would you pick up?

Contributed by Joseph Bellier Take a meteorological ensemble, use it as input of a hydrological model, but then what? There are many ways to improve a forecasting chain, but which upgrade is going to be the most beneficial? We recently published a paper in which we “play” with a modular forecasting chain, by adding/removing various components and verifying how skillful the streamflow forecasts are. Here are some outputs. The ensemble approach, in its wider definition (not only meteorological ensemble forecasting),…

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How can we verify the predictive performance of ensemble hydroclimatic forecasts?

How can we verify the predictive performance of ensemble hydroclimatic forecasts?

Contributed by Zeqing Huang and Tongtiegang Zhao This blog aims to contribute to the large scientific discussion on the performance assessment of ensemble hydroclimatic forecasts. We are particularly driven by the valuable global precipitation and temperature forecasts generated by global climate models (GCMs) (Pappenberger and Buizza, 2009; Kirtman et al., 2014; Bauer et al., 2015; Becker et al., 2020; Crochemore et al., 2021). Their forecasts have been widely used in hydrological modeling and water resources management, including flood warning  (Alfieri…

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