What is the value of seasonal forecasts for water resources management?

What is the value of seasonal forecasts for water resources management?

Contributed by Andres Peñuela, Christopher Hutton and Francesca Pianosi Improved skill of predictions for the North Atlantic circulation and Northern Europe have motivated an increasing effort to improve seasonal weather forecasting systems. Seasonal weather forecasts are expected to be useful for a range of purposes, including to improve the management of water resource systems. To contribute to the assessment of seasonal forecasts value for water managers, we ran a simulation exercise investigating how they could integrate seasonal forecast products in…

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Playing ‘frisbee’ with seasonal predictions

Playing ‘frisbee’ with seasonal predictions

  Embed from Getty Images   This blog is written by Timo Kelder (@timokelder), a 3rd year PhD student in climate science at Loughborough University. Here, he writes about the history of frisbees, and the parallels with his recently published paper on using seasonal predictions for detecting recent trends in rare extremes. Ultimate frisbee is now a well-established sport, with over 70,000 British participants in 2019. The photo shows how this began in the 1970s by skimming disks. But how…

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Hydrological Forecasting at Virtual EGU 2021

Hydrological Forecasting at Virtual EGU 2021

The EGU 2021 Annual General Assembly (vEGU21) will take place from 19–30 April 2021, and due to the challenging Covid-19 situation, this event will be a virtual one. We shall nevertheless grasp all opportunities to get updated on the recent scientific insights and developments and also to virtually socialize with friends and colleagues. To suport the EGU HS Hydrological Forecasting subdivision efforts and make vEGU21 a big success this year too, see below the sessions that are relevant to HEPEXers….

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Memories of the Taquari River

Memories of the Taquari River

Contributed by Sofia Royer Moraes, PhD candidate UFRGS, Brazil The study and understanding of the natural dynamics of rivers has always brought a gleam to my eyes, since its application is important to society, especially for those most susceptible to it. I am currently studying extreme floodings, that is, rarer events, which also have the greatest impact on society, both for measures to be taken in order to reduce economic damage in an upcoming event and the impact on people’s…

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Representative Direct Ensemble Uncertainty Visualizations: Conveying Uncertainty Using A Small Portion of The Data

Representative Direct Ensemble Uncertainty Visualizations: Conveying Uncertainty Using A Small Portion of The Data

Contributed by Le Liu, PhD., School of Computer Science Northwestern Polytechnical University.   As we know, ensemble approaches are widely adopted to estimate forecasts uncertainty. In atmospheric sciences, these approaches are specifically categorized into two types: multi-model ensembles and perturbed parameter ensembles. The former runs multiple numerical prediction models with the same initial parameters to estimate the atmospheric evolution, while the latter runs a single model multiple times with slightly perturbed initial conditions. They are usually combined to form the final forecast….

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