Uncertainty quantification, communication practicing and modern pedagogy of hydrological forecasts – A “Παν μέτρον άριστον” approach – Interview with Marie-Amélie Boucher

Uncertainty quantification, communication practicing and modern pedagogy of hydrological forecasts – A “Παν μέτρον άριστον” approach – Interview with Marie-Amélie Boucher

Contributed by Ilias Pechlivanidis and Marie-Amélie Boucher. Marie-Amélie Boucher has been a HEPEXer since 2007, with a strong involvement in HEPEX-related events, i.e. organizing committee member of the HEPEX 2016 workshop in Québec, and lecturer of the hydrological forecasting course for the Early Career Scientists (ECS) at EGU2017 in Vienna and IAHS 2019 in Montréal, and others. On a scientific level, she is one of the members that brings knowledge to the community on Nordic hydrological processes and forecasting practices…

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Follow the HSAF HEPEX workshop live, in person or streaming

Follow the HSAF HEPEX workshop live, in person or streaming

In just a couple of weeks it is time for the joint H SAF and HEPEX workshop on using remote sensing for hydrological applications, this time enticingly named “Satellite inspired hydrology in an uncertain future”. The workshop is a follow-on from the workshop five years ago on “Coupled hydrology“, so it is time to see how far the community has got in terms of using satellite data in hydrological applications and what the challenges are for the future. We welcome…

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Verification of U.S. National Hurricane Center’s forecast advisories, 2006-2019

Verification of U.S. National Hurricane Center’s forecast advisories, 2006-2019

Below is a re-post of a blog post that I recently published at forecastverification.com, which is a small company that I operate in part-time (in addition to my hydrometeorologist job at Deltares). While hurricane forecasting is a little removed from hydrometeorology, I figured that the disciplines have sufficient overlap for this to be interesting to the HEPEX community also. Happy reading! Introduction Post Hurricane Irma’s passage over Florida, back in September 2017, I analysed the quality of the forecasts that…

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Hydrometeorological forecast verification: the detail matters!

Hydrometeorological forecast verification: the detail matters!

Contributed by Seonaid Anderson, CEH.  Spending time and effort developing a novel hydrological ensemble prediction system, demonstrating its value, comparing with existing systems, justifying all that effort… there are many reasons why we verify our ensemble prediction systems. Before we dive into the number crunching, a few obvious questions need to be asked. What period to use for evaluation? This is often as long as possible, while maintaining relevance to the current application and subject to the usual computing constraints. What…

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Data Drought and Data Flood

Data Drought and Data Flood

Contributed by Mark Trigg*.  It’s hot, and very, very dry. The rains have failed, and the animals are dying. Around the table people are concerned that it will be people dying next. The cycle seems to repeat every 10 years and the response is exactly the same, every time – we must do something and save lives. “Drill more boreholes and put in big pumps and generators”, someone cries, “no matter the cost!”. A timid voice rises above the ongoing…

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