Is One Forecast Model Better Than Another?

Is One Forecast Model Better Than Another?

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Blog post contributed by: Tim DelSole* The Sign Test Is one forecast model better than another? A natural approach to answering this question is to run a set of forecasts with each model and then see which set has more skill. This comparison requires a statistical test to ensure that the estimated difference represents a real difference in skill, rather than a random sampling error. Unfortunately, there are three problems with using standard difference tests: they have low statistical power,…

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Drought Observatory: a Climate Service to improve environmental resilience

Drought Observatory: a Climate Service to improve environmental resilience

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Contributed by Ramona Magno, IBIMET-CNR, Italy. Drought is a creeping and complex phenomenon with different types of impacts that imply a general reduction of water availability and involve either energy or food sectors, and on a wider scale the ecosystems. Under a climate change framework, the increasing frequency of droughts and their extended persistence need to be accounted for, addressing both adaptation and mitigation strategies. Drought dynamics reveal a time gap between the onset of a drought event and the…

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HEPEX 2018 Year in Review

HEPEX 2018 Year in Review

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In the last HEPEX blog post of the year, we’re taking a look back at our highlights of 2018! This year, we published 36 blog posts, with contributions from HEPEX-ers across the globe.  But first of all, a quick reminder of important HEPEX events coming up soon: The abstract deadline for EGU 2019 (7-12 April, Vienna) is fast approaching – don’t forget to submit your abstract by 10th January! Click here for an overview of hydrological-forecasting-related sessions, and here for information…

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Lessons from calibrating a global flood forecasting system

Lessons from calibrating a global flood forecasting system

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Contributed by Feyera Hirpa, University of Oxford. Hydrological models are key tools for predicting flood disasters several days ahead of their occurrence. However, their usability as a decision support tool depends on their skill in reproducing the observed streamflow. The forecast skill is subject to a cascade of uncertainties originating from errors in the models’ structure, parametrization, initial conditions and meteorological forcing. The Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) is an operational flood forecasting system that produces ensemble streamflow forecasts with…

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Nice hydrographs for everyone, from everyone: Introducing eWaterCycle II

Nice hydrographs for everyone, from everyone: Introducing eWaterCycle II

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Contributed by Rolf Hut, TU Delft. “Nice hydrographs! Can you now compare your model to ‘that other hydrology groups model’?” The PhD student suppresses the urge to roll her eyes. Her supervisor is asking her to go back into code-hell. That other model is written in Fortran and she works in Python. It took her two months to get the Python model used in her group running in the first place. Realizing she needed to install an obtuse library on…

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