It is time for yet another HEPEX webinar, this time by Florian, who will talk about seamless forecasting. Please pre-register by clicking the link. Also, the last seminar of 2013 which is scheduled for December 19 at 3:30pm will be quite different. More details on that to come.
Date and time: Thursday, November 28, 2013 3:30 pm GMT Time (London, GMT)
Abstract: Early warning systems of floods, droughts and other extreme events at a global scale are now essential due to the combined threat of increased population settlement in vulnerable areas, such as those prone to flooding or water shortage, and the possible risk of an increase of the intensity of extreme weather due to climate change.
The recent availability of long-term global gridded datasets of precipitation and temperature alongside improvements in skill of weather prediction provides an unique opportunity to develop systems for early detection of extremes on a global scale. The European Weather Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is leading this effort by combining forecast products from the short-range (few days) up to the seasonal scale in a seamless framework, and by using them to drive user-oriented application to predict floods, droughts, extreme wind, forest fires and malaria.
This paper reviews the performance of these systems by providing a comprehensive assessment of their performance both on a global level and on selected regions. The final aim is to employ these prototype systems in decision support frameworks, and the developments required in order to meet this ambitious aim are carefully considered.
About the speaker: http://www.ecmwf.int/staff/florian_pappenberger/