What is HEPEX?

HEPEX is a community of researchers and practitioners for hydrologic ensemble prediction. It is a community initiative with many people contributing and working on specific topics related to hydrological forecasting and hydrometeorological ensemble prediction.

HEPEX (for Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction EXperiment) seeks to advance the science and practice of hydrologic ensemble prediction and its usage for risk-based decision making by engaging in several ongoing activities, including:

  • organizing scientific exchange between participants through workshops and sessions or meetings at major conferences,
  • planning and coordinating experiments or testbeds,
  • highlighting operational or experimental real-time examples or cases of hydrologic ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) to help practitioners find out about how ensemble prediction is being used around the world for various applications,
  • maintaining¬†online community interaction and HEPS-related resources via this website.

HEPEX website (this blog portal) is used as an intersection point for members, i.e., a forum for members to share their research, make announcements, report on workshops, projects and meetings, and hear about related research and operational challenges.

Participation in HEPEX is open to anyone wishing to contribute to its objectives. Individuals interested in becoming involved in HEPEX can do so through participation in its activities. HEPEX has four co-chairs and several regional chairs that help in keeping the community linked.

HEPEX is an unfunded/volunteer effort since 2004.

HEPEX mission is:

  • to demonstrate the added value of hydrological ensemble predictions for operational water resources management, risk assessment and emergency management to make decisions that have important consequences for economy, public health and safety.

Key questions of HEPEX are:

  • What adaptations are required for meteorological ensemble prediction systems to be coupled with hydrological ensemble systems?
  • How should the existing hydrological ensemble prediction systems be modified to account for all sources of uncertainty within a forecast?
  • What is the best way for the user community to take advantage of ensemble forecasts and to make better decisions based on them?

HEPEX is organised around six major themes:

  1. Input and pre-processing
  2. Ensemble techniques and process modelling
  3. Data assimilation
  4. Post-processing
  5. Verification
  6. Communication and use in decision making

Please visit the site and its blog posts, register to receive updates and contact us to find out more about HEPEX.