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Author: Anders Persson

Why are meteorologists apprehensive of ensemble forecasts?

Why are meteorologists apprehensive of ensemble forecasts?

Contributed by Anders Persson, Uppsala, Sweden A colleague in my world-wide meteorological network made me aware of a CALMet conference in Melbourne, i.e. dealing with meteorological education and training. Through the website you can access the program with more or less extensive abstracts. I have no doubt that most presentations were relevant and interesting, but what surprised me was that a search for the key words “probability” or “ensemble”  gave no hits. “Uncertainty” came up in only one (1) presentation,…

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Why did the Californian water authorities favour biased rain forecasts?

Why did the Californian water authorities favour biased rain forecasts?

Contributed by Anders Persson As you may know, one of the more lively and inventive weather services in Europe is the regional meteorological office in Bologna. They have not only developed a good limited area model (COSMO) but also an ensemble system (COSMO LEPS) to complement it. They have also, like me, come to the conclusion that using probabilistic systems demands some knowledge and feeling for probabilities. For that purpose they are arranging a course in February “Probability and uncertainty:…

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How can the Brier score know my inner thoughts???

How can the Brier score know my inner thoughts???

Contributed by Anders Persson, a HEPEX guest columnist for 2014 Inspired by Tom Pagano’s interview with Beth Ebert on verification 22 August, I would support Beth’s enthusiasm by pointing out some more exciting features in the verification statistics: 1. The problem to interpret the statistics: what “looks good” might be bad, what “looks bad” might be good”. One morning in 1995, the ECMWF Director pressed the alarm bell. The most recent verified five-day forecast scored minus 20% in the anomaly…

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The 11th advice to young scientists: – You must risk being unpopular!

The 11th advice to young scientists: – You must risk being unpopular!

Contributed by Anders Persson, a HEPEX guest columnist for 2014 In two weeks’ time, Thursday 9 October, I will lecture under the title “Advice to a young student who wants to make a career in the mathematical sciences” at the European Meteorological Society conference in Prague. In my presentation, I have listed 10 good advices for students who are considering a career in science: Choose the science or scientific topic from what you like or are good at – often…

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Meeting “meteorological communicators”

Meeting “meteorological communicators”

Contributed by Anders Persson, a HEPEX guest columnist for 2014 Last winter I worked on a biography of Vilho Väisälä, the Finnish meteorologist who started Finland’s first high-tech company producing meteorological instruments. For different reasons, I needed a translation of the Finnish title “Maailman tunnetuin meteorologi?” (The world’s most famous meteorologist?) into Spanish. So I contacted Manuel Palomares at the Spanish Met Service. When we got to know each other, 20 years ago, he was Chief Forecaster, now he was…

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