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Author: Andy Wood

Tracing The Origins of ESP

Tracing The Origins of ESP

HEPEX Historical Hydrology Series, Edition 1 Contribution by Andy Wood, Tom Pagano, and Maury Roos, with special thanks to Mike Anderson Every day in the western US and elsewhere in the world, reservoir release decisions are made based in part on seasonal reservoir inflow forecasts created using a operational technique called Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP, which originally stood for Extended Streamflow Prediction). ESP has become a key component of operational long lead prediction in a number of agencies (in the…

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Streamflow flood monitoring and forecasting over Africa with little data

Streamflow flood monitoring and forecasting over Africa with little data

By Justin Sheffield (Princeton University) Recent flooding in Mozambique caused almost 100 deaths and displaced 150,000 people, with extensive damage to infrastructure. Forecasting such an event is a challenge because of the scarcity of on-the-ground data and lack of capacity in many parts of Africa, despite the great need. This post shows some results from the Princeton University African Flood and Drought Monitor (AFDM), which uses satellite precipitation and hydrological modeling to track large-scale surface hydrology, and weather/climate model output…

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Ensemble Hydrological Forecasting in China: Status and Prospects

Ensemble Hydrological Forecasting in China: Status and Prospects

Contributed by Qingyun Duan, Beijing Normal University, China The hydrometeorological services of the western countries, including the United States, Canada, Australia and many European countries, have already fully adopted ensemble forecasting methods operationally in their meteorological forecasts, and development and implementation of ensembles in their hydrological forecasts is well underway. Asian countries, particularly China, have been slow in taking on ensemble forecasting approach in their operational hydrological forecasts. As we enter the Year of the Sheep, I take this opportunity…

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HEPEX site outage

HEPEX site outage

Returning visitors may have found the HEPEX site apparently “down” in the last few days. While direct links to posts have been properly working all along, the portal’s front page showed an error message. As it turned out, one of the plugins was acting up. We solved the issue by parting ways. There are still some remaining issues with respect to the links within the HEPEX site and we’re hoping to solve these in the next few days. Apologies for…

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The importance of parameterizations for better continental forecast systems

The importance of parameterizations for better continental forecast systems

Contributed by Luis Samaniego (Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ) Parameterization: An old, ubiquitous, and recurring problem Modeling is a complex human activity because of the crucial trade-offs that have to be made to reach a final objective. According to Popper [1935], modeling is an interactive research process that starts with the observation of a natural system (e.g., the water cycle) aiming for a “mental” abstraction of the main elements that are necessary to faithfully describe the evolution of…

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