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What to look for when using forecasts from NWP models for streamflow forecasting?

What to look for when using forecasts from NWP models for streamflow forecasting?

By Durga Lal Shrestha, James Bennett, David Robertson and QJ Wang, members of the CSIRO Columnist Team There have been a few posts on NWP performance lately, and so we thought we’d add our perspective. We’ve been working closely with the Bureau of Meteorology to extend their new 7-day deterministic streamflow forecasting service to an operational ensemble streamflow forecasting service. One of the fundamental choices we have to make is the source of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs). This is not…

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Get your geek on: handling data for ensemble forecasting

Get your geek on: handling data for ensemble forecasting

Contributed by James Bennett, David Robertson, Andrew Schepen, Jean-Michel Perraud and Robert Bridgart, members of the CSIRO Columnist Team There’s something about discussions of data handling that’s particularly soporific – but don’t nod off yet! Most hydrologists are trained to work on individual catchments and we often opt for simple conceptual models. In the pre-ensemble era, we were often quite happy to use unsophisticated ways of crunching numbers: many of us can remember (perhaps quite recently!) using desktop computers to tune…

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How good is my forecasting method? Some thoughts on forecast evaluation using cross-validation based on Australian experiences

How good is my forecasting method? Some thoughts on forecast evaluation using cross-validation based on Australian experiences

Contributed by David Robertson, James Bennett and Andrew Schepen, members of the CSIRO Guest Columnist Team As hydrological forecasting researchers, we are often excited when we develop new methods that lead to forecasts with smaller errors and/or more reliable uncertainty estimates. So how do we know whether a new method truly improves forecast performance? The true test of any forecasting method is, of course, how it performs for real-time applications. But this is often not possible, and we have to…

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