Author Archives: Florian Pappenberger

The 15th session of the WMO’s Commission for Hydrology (CHy-15)

Contributed by Sinéad Duffy & Oliver Nicholson The Commission for Hydrology (CHy) of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) recently held its fifteenth session in Rome from 7th to 13th December 2016. Oliver Nicholson and I were the Irish representatives and attended … Continue reading

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An invitation: help HEPEX program apps to teach the value of probabilistic forecasts

Contributed by Florian Pappenberger, Andy Wood, Maria-Helena Ramos, Schalk-Jan van Andel, Louise Crochemore, and Louise Arnal This is a blog for people who usually do not read this blog. This is a blog which asks for help so that our … Continue reading

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FcstVerChallenge: will you join the HEPEX team?

You may have read Florian’s recent post on the WMO’s “forecast verification challenge”. In short: the WMO’s World Weather Research Programme set a challenge to develop new user oriented verification scores, metrics, diagnostics or diagrams. Any entries have to be … Continue reading

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A user-oriented forecast verification metric competition

Forecast performance is one of the most central themes not only in day-to-day weather forecasting, but also in HEPEX. It is so important that we have devoted an entire chapter in our science and implementation plan to it (see here). … Continue reading

Posted in announcements-events, forecast users, verification | 1 Comment

Learning from past disasters

Contributed by Pavel Raška, J. E. Purkyně University in Ústí nad Labem, Czechia When I was asked to write a post to the HEPEX blog about the use of historical experience in current flash flood risk reduction, I firstly thought … Continue reading

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Comparing forecasting in 1939 to today

“From the prophecies of the Ancients to the crystal-gazing of the Moderns, man’s urge to know his fate has been in opposition to the wisdom of a Providence that mercifully cloaks the future and reduces the outlook largely to speculation; … Continue reading

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Hydrological Ensemble forecasting – financial investment vs return

by Hannah Cloke, Fredrik Wetterhall and Florian Pappenberger Within the HEPEX community we all understand very well that hydrological (ensemble) forecasting is hard work. Massive effort goes into developing the systems, huge resources go into running them and there is … Continue reading

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Using the Web for Environmental Big Data

Contributed by Claudia Vitolo and Wouter Buytaert (Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London) About 90% of all the data in the world has been generated over the last two years1. At this rate, in 2015 we are expected to … Continue reading

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What makes a forecast with uncertainty valuable to practitioners?

by Sarah Michaels (University of Nebraska) “the extent to which forecasts shape decision making under uncertainty is the true measure of the worth of a forecast” For forecasts to be useful requires they be scientifically justified, the information conveyed valuable … Continue reading

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The model, the forecast and the forecaster

by Jan Danhelka, a HEPEX 2015 Guest Columnist I have to start my first HEPEX blog post by a short introduction of myself. I have more than 10 years of experience in real time hydrological forecasting and modelling. Those years … Continue reading

Posted in columnist, forecast communication, forecast techniques | 4 Comments