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Author: Florian Pappenberger

The 15th session of the WMO’s Commission for Hydrology (CHy-15)

The 15th session of the WMO’s Commission for Hydrology (CHy-15)

Contributed by Sinéad Duffy & Oliver Nicholson The Commission for Hydrology (CHy) of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) recently held its fifteenth session in Rome from 7th to 13th December 2016. Oliver Nicholson and I were the Irish representatives and attended the session on Dec 8th & 9th. This was the first Irish attendance at a CHy session since 1980. Oliver works in the Office of Public Works (OPW), the lead Irish state body for coordination and implementation of Government policy…

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An invitation: help HEPEX program apps to teach the value of probabilistic forecasts

An invitation: help HEPEX program apps to teach the value of probabilistic forecasts

Contributed by Florian Pappenberger, Andy Wood, Maria-Helena Ramos, Schalk-Jan van Andel, Louise Crochemore, and Louise Arnal This is a blog for people who usually do not read this blog. This is a blog which asks for help so that our learning and teaching games and tools become more useful and widespread. This is a blog hoping that we can find some enthusiastic volunteers. The more people know how to use probabilistic forecasts, the better their decisions and the lower the…

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FcstVerChallenge: will you join the HEPEX team?

FcstVerChallenge: will you join the HEPEX team?

You may have read Florian’s recent post on the WMO’s “forecast verification challenge”. In short: the WMO’s World Weather Research Programme set a challenge to develop new user oriented verification scores, metrics, diagnostics or diagrams. Any entries have to be submitted by the end of October and the winning entry will be awarded with a “keynote” presentation at the 2017 WMO verification meeting in Geneva as well as free passage into that event. Some HEPEX-ers got together last week and…

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A user-oriented forecast verification metric competition

A user-oriented forecast verification metric competition

Forecast performance is one of the most central themes not only in day-to-day weather forecasting, but also in HEPEX. It is so important that we have devoted an entire chapter in our science and implementation plan to it (see here). I am, in particular, often forwarding the link to these blog posts when I am explaining (or trying to explain) forecast properties to a forecast user. Nevertheless, many of the scores remain abstract. Whilst a forecast bias may still be…

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Learning from past disasters

Learning from past disasters

Contributed by Pavel Raška, J. E. Purkyně University in Ústí nad Labem, Czechia When I was asked to write a post to the HEPEX blog about the use of historical experience in current flash flood risk reduction, I firstly thought that it does not fit into the scope of forecast and modelling issues discussed herein. But then I found the posts that highlight the role of local-base knowledge in impact-based modelling (see here) and the importance of human factor in…

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