Author Archives: Marie-Amélie Boucher

Risk aversion and decision making using ensemble forecasts

by Marie-Amélie Boucher and Vincent Boucher Assessing the value of forecasts is a very popular topic among the HEPEX community. The assessment of forecast value is highly dependent on the purpose served by the forecasts. For the specific problem of decision-making … Continue reading

Posted in decision making, economic value | 2 Comments

A short course on Hydrological Forecasting: interview with Marie-Amélie Boucher and Jan Verkade

Contributed by Maria-Helena Ramos (Irstea) and Shaun Harrigan (CEH) This year Hepex is joining the Young Hydrologic Society (YHS) to offer a short course on hydrological forecasting during the EGU General Assembly in Vienna. Shaun Harrigan (CEH), representative of the … Continue reading

Posted in announcements-events, early-career scientists, forecast techniques, interviews | 2 Comments

Pre-, post-processing or both?

by Marie-Amélie Boucher, a HEPEX 2015 Guest Columnist Do you think it is better to pre-process the meteorological forecasts, to post-process the hydrological forecasts or to do both? Why? Following this blog about future directions for post-processing research, this challenge was … Continue reading

Posted in columnist, forecast techniques, postprocessing | 3 Comments

Analogues are the new deterministic forecasts

by Marie-Amélie Boucher, a HEPEX 2015 Guest Columnist According to Krzysztofowicz (2001), “Probabilistic forecasts are scientifically more honest [than deterministic forecasts], enable risk-based warnings of floods, enable rational decision making, and offer additional economic benefits.” More than 10 years later, I … Continue reading

Posted in columnist, verification | 5 Comments

The human hydrological model

by Marie-Amélie Boucher, a HEPEX 2015 Guest Columnist Very recently, my fellow HEPEX columnist Jan Danhelka discussed the importance of the human forecasters in the whole process of weather and streamflow forecasting. His blog reminded me of a visit I made … Continue reading

Posted in columnist, decision making, flash floods, hydrologic models | 3 Comments

On the life and death of hydrologic models

 by Marie-Amélie Boucher, a HEPEX 2015 Guest Columnist During the 1950-2000 period, a very large quantity of hydrologic models of all varieties were created due to a rapid increase of computational capacities (Roche et al. 2013). Now, on the one … Continue reading

Posted in columnist, hydrologic models | 2 Comments

From operational hydrological forecast to reservoir management optimization

Contributed by Marie-Amélie Boucher The interaction between end-users and researchers has long been a central preoccupation of the HEPEX community (see, for instance, this post and this announcement). The recent workshop on operational hydrological forecasting and reservoir management optimisation that … Continue reading

Posted in decision making, ensemble techniques, forecast techniques, meetings, operational systems, risk management | Leave a comment

On the economic value of hydrological ensemble forecasts

Contributed by Marie-Amélie Boucher, Maria-Helena Ramos and Ioanna Zalachori It is often assumed that probabilistic forecasts should lead to better water and risk management through increased benefits (economic or not) to users in their decision-making processes. Most often, this assumption … Continue reading

Posted in decision making, economic value, operational systems | 11 Comments