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Author: Nathalie Voisin

HEPEX 2014 achievements

HEPEX 2014 achievements

Contributed by Andy Wood, Maria-Helena Ramos, Fredrik Wetterhall, Florian Pappenberger, Jan Verkade and Nathalie Voisin 2014 is (almost) over… Did you miss something? It all started with four people having something to say…: our 2014 HEPEX columnists did a great job and shared with us their thoughts, doubts, ideas and projects. You can read their columns again here. We expect they will keep on contributing to the website, while new ones are planned to 2015. Who are they??…. Keep following…

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AGU Informational Meeting on the Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX)

AGU Informational Meeting on the Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX)

Contributed by Andy Wood, Nathalie Voisin and John Schaake We encourage all new and long-time members of the HEPEX community, and others interested in hydrological forecasting, to gather at the AGU Fall Meeting HEPEX ‘Splinter’ Meeting in San Francisco, CA, on Wednesday, December 11th. The event is listed in the conference program as: EVENT186. Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) Splinter Meeting. Wednesday, 12:30 PM – 1:30 PM Sierra E (San Francisco Marriott Marquis — see below). The main goals of…

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Hydrometeorological forecasting at AGU Fall Meeting 2014 and HEPEX Splinter Meeting

Hydrometeorological forecasting at AGU Fall Meeting 2014 and HEPEX Splinter Meeting

The Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union is approaching fast. There will be sessions directly linked to HEPEX and other addressing related challenges. Below is a sample of those sessions. Please note the HEPEX side meeting on Wednesday, details of the agenda will be posted soon. I hope that you find this helpful.  To add sessions, please respond to that post so that readers can see it as well. Monday AM H11K. Advances in Hydrometeorological Predictions and Applications I Convener(s): Nathalie…

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HEPEX-SIP Topic: Post-processing (3/3)

HEPEX-SIP Topic: Post-processing (3/3)

Contributed by Nathalie Voisin, Jan Verkade and Maria-Helena Ramos So, what are the current challenges and research needs in post-processing?  At the HEPEX meetings and workshops, several challenges related to the use of statistical post-processors in hydrological ensemble prediction were identified: How to select suitable / best predictors to make an efficient use of prior knowledge and information available at the moment of forecasting? ‘Stationarity is dead; whither postprocessing?’ How can existing postprocessors adapt their modeling approach to non-stationarities in…

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HEPEX-SIP Topic: Post-processing (2/3)

HEPEX-SIP Topic: Post-processing (2/3)

Contributed by Maria-Helena Ramos, Nathalie Voisin and Jan Verkade What can we find about post-processors for hydrological prediction in the literature? A small review to be completed by you! In hydrologic uncertainty analysis, the Bayesian framework prevails to analytically derive the joint distribution of forecasts and observations. Based on existing prior knowledge and likelihood functions, new data is used to update this prior knowledge and provide a conditional posterior distribution, which summarizes the uncertainty about the variable of interest (i.e.,…

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