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Author: rebecca

Large ensemble simulations for the study of extreme hydrological events

Large ensemble simulations for the study of extreme hydrological events

Contributed by Karin van der Wiel, KNMI*. The investigation of extreme hydrological events is often limited by the length of observed records or model simulations. For this reason many statistical extrapolation methods have been developed. In a recent GRL paper we advocate a novel method for the study of extreme events, which does not rely on such extrapolations (Van der Wiel et al., 2019). In this blog post I invite you to take a slight step outside the HEPEX world…

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Improving forecasting of flooding from intense rainfall through interdisciplinary research

Improving forecasting of flooding from intense rainfall through interdisciplinary research

Contributed by Dr Linda Speight, University of Reading. In England and Wales alone 3 million properties are at risk of surface water flooding. Having spent the past year speaking to a number of experts in the field (see below), I feel confident saying the universal biggest challenge facing everyone involved in forecasting flooding from intense rainfall is communicating the uncertainties around the location and timing of flood events. Whether you are a researcher looking at developing novel ways to visualise…

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Drought Observatory: a Climate Service to improve environmental resilience

Drought Observatory: a Climate Service to improve environmental resilience

Contributed by Ramona Magno, IBIMET-CNR, Italy. Drought is a creeping and complex phenomenon with different types of impacts that imply a general reduction of water availability and involve either energy or food sectors, and on a wider scale the ecosystems. Under a climate change framework, the increasing frequency of droughts and their extended persistence need to be accounted for, addressing both adaptation and mitigation strategies. Drought dynamics reveal a time gap between the onset of a drought event and the…

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HEPEX 2018 Year in Review

HEPEX 2018 Year in Review

In the last HEPEX blog post of the year, we’re taking a look back at our highlights of 2018! This year, we published 36 blog posts, with contributions from HEPEX-ers across the globe.  But first of all, a quick reminder of important HEPEX events coming up soon: The abstract deadline for EGU 2019 (7-12 April, Vienna) is fast approaching – don’t forget to submit your abstract by 10th January! Click here for an overview of hydrological-forecasting-related sessions, and here for information…

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Lessons from calibrating a global flood forecasting system

Lessons from calibrating a global flood forecasting system

Contributed by Feyera Hirpa, University of Oxford. Hydrological models are key tools for predicting flood disasters several days ahead of their occurrence. However, their usability as a decision support tool depends on their skill in reproducing the observed streamflow. The forecast skill is subject to a cascade of uncertainties originating from errors in the models’ structure, parametrization, initial conditions and meteorological forcing. The Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) is an operational flood forecasting system that produces ensemble streamflow forecasts with…

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