Author Archives: Tom Pagano

For discussion: Are we getting close to integrating water and climate information?

Contributed by Tom Pagano, a HEPEX guest columnist for 2014 The opinions expressed here are solely the author’s and do not express the views or opinions of his employer or the Australian Government. Following on a post earlier this week about the upcoming … Continue reading

Posted in columnist, decision making, droughts, forecast techniques, meetings, risk management, seasonal prediction | Tagged , | 2 Comments

For discussion: Have we reached the limits of what can be forecast in water, weather and climate?

Contributed by Tom Pagano, a HEPEX guest columnist for 2014 The opinions expressed here are solely the author’s and do not express the views or opinions of his employer or the Australian Government. This post invites a discussion around the topic “Have … Continue reading

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Interview with Beth Ebert: What is good forecast verification?

Contributed by Tom Pagano, a HEPEX guest columnist for 2014 The opinions expressed here are solely the author’s and Dr. Ebert’s and do not express the views or opinions of their employer or the Australian Government. HEPEX is spurring interest in Hydrologic … Continue reading

Posted in columnist, ensemble techniques, forecast techniques, interviews, verification | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Challenges of Operational River Forecasting

Contributed by Tom Pagano, a HEPEX guest columnist for 2014 The opinions expressed here are solely the author’s and do not express the views or opinions of his employer or the Australian Government. I, with ten international colleagues, recently published a paper … Continue reading

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Is a lack of competition affecting innovation in operational river forecasting?

Contributed by Tom Pagano, a HEPEX guest columnist for 2014 The opinions expressed here are solely the author’s and do not express the views or opinions of his employer or the Australian Government. I (with my co-authors) recently submitted a paper on … Continue reading

Posted in columnist, decision making, economic value, forecast communication, forecast techniques, multimodel, operational systems | Tagged , , | 14 Comments

Operational Highlight: Flood Forecasting by the Mekong River Commission

Contributed by Tom Pagano An article has recently been published by Australian Bureau of Meteorology researcher Tom Pagano on the performance of the Mekong River Commission’s operational flood forecasts. Tom Pagano is a HEPEX guest columnist for 2014. Verification is … Continue reading

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What is a good forecast?

Contributed by Tom Pagano, a HEPEX guest columnist for 2014 My interest in forecasts began in 1997 at the University of Arizona. I was studying how well weather models reproduced the effects of El Niño in the southwest US when a nearly unprecedented … Continue reading

Posted in columnist, forecast communication, operational systems | 6 Comments