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Author: Tom Pagano

Operational Highlight: Flood Forecasting by the Mekong River Commission

Operational Highlight: Flood Forecasting by the Mekong River Commission

Contributed by Tom Pagano An article has recently been published by Australian Bureau of Meteorology researcher Tom Pagano on the performance of the Mekong River Commission’s operational flood forecasts. Tom Pagano is a HEPEX guest columnist for 2014. Verification is a core topic in HEPEX and is a critical component of any forecasting system. Although research studies often verify retrospectively generated hindcasts, this publication is a rare example of verification of a long history (13 years) of as-issued operational hydrological…

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What is a good forecast?

What is a good forecast?

Contributed by Tom Pagano, a HEPEX guest columnist for 2014 My interest in forecasts began in 1997 at the University of Arizona. I was studying how well weather models reproduced the effects of El Niño in the southwest US when a nearly unprecedented El Niño developed and captured everyone’s attention. It brought immediacy and focus to our work – people wanted to know about the possibility of floods; water was being released from dams, channels being cleared of debris, sandbags being laid. I…

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