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Author: Fredrik Wetterhall

The Current State of Operational Global (and continental) Scale Flood Forecasting

The Current State of Operational Global (and continental) Scale Flood Forecasting

contributed by Rebecca Emerton, PhD Student at the University of Reading and ECMWF After reading Chantal’s recent blog post discussing some of the limitations for international flood forecasting, and last week’s interview with Thomas Adams and Tom Pagano discussing their new book describing national and regional flood forecasting systems around the world, I thought it would be interesting to add to this dialogue with a brief overview of the current state of large-scale (global and continental) operational flood forecasting. It…

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“Ex tempore”- El Niño Ready Nations (ENRN)

“Ex tempore”- El Niño Ready Nations (ENRN)

Contributed by Bapon Fakhruddin Seasonal forecasting techniques today are far more advanced than they were 40 years ago, enabling ensembles of seasonal forecast simulations with state-of-the-art climate models that produce a probability distribution of possible outcomes at various lead times for slightly different initial conditions. This is thanks to the development of complex coupled ocean–atmosphere–land numerical models, modern statistical forecasting tools, sophisticated data assimilation systems and global observing systems that provide real-time data for forecast initialization. The forecast ensembles nowadays…

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UK and Ireland floods in December 2015 and January 2016

UK and Ireland floods in December 2015 and January 2016

by Richard Davies floodlist.com December 2015 saw three storms – Desmond, Eva and Frank – conspire to make it the UK’s wettest month on record. The heavy rainfall brought severe flooding to parts of Scotland, Ireland and northern England, where Honister Pass in Cumbria saw a record-breaking 341mm of rain in 24 hours (to 18:00 GMT, 05 December 2015). More than 20,000 properties were flooded as a result of the extreme weather. UK insurers estimate they will need to pay…

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#FloodHack inspired ideas to improve global flood forecasting

#FloodHack inspired ideas to improve global flood forecasting

The #FloodHack on 16 -17 January at ECMWF in Reading brought together about 50 volunteers from ECMWF, universities, environmental consultancies and software development companies over a weekend of development. Their goal was to explore ways of making the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) more user-friendly for its end-users. Tools that could save lives worldwide After some introduction to GloFAS and brainstorming around challenges that needed to be addressed, the participants were free to form teams and formulate a problem that could…

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Special issue in HESS: Sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting

Special issue in HESS: Sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting

To start of 2016 on a positive note, HEPEX is happy to invite contributions to a special issue in HESS on sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting. The special issue is a follow-up on the workshop in Norrköping in September 2015 as well as the workshops in Koblenz in 2014 and 2015. The issue will accept contributions that covers any of the topics listed below: User needs for seasonal forecasts (for example, hydropower, agriculture, navigation, insurance companies, groundwater, and health and safety-risk…

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