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EXTRA – Ensemble predictions are not real forecasts – EXTRA

EXTRA – Ensemble predictions are not real forecasts – EXTRA

Contributed by McFools Forecasting has since the beginning of time been the process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes (typically) have not yet been observed. Consequently, adding uncertainty to your forecast permitted you to make many statements about the future. However, theorists claim that you cannot simply add uncertainty as you wish: no, the forecast has to be reliable and skilful! It seems like an awful lot of work! Previously, we used deterministic, high resolution forecasts and changed…

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