Summer 2018 in Europe: did the EFAS seasonal outlook predict low river flows?

Summer 2018 in Europe: did the EFAS seasonal outlook predict low river flows?

— this post is jointly published on the blogs of HEPEX and the European Drought Centre — Contributed by Louise Arnal (ECMWF and University of Reading), Shaun Harrigan (ECMWF) & David Lavers (ECMWF). Summer 2018 in Europe was remarkable from a hydroclimate perspective, with large regions experiencing persistent dry conditions, very little to no rainfall for extended periods, a series of heatwaves with record-breaking temperatures and numerous wildfires (in the UK, Sweden, Greece, Spain, Portugal, Latvia and Germany, among others)….

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Using ensemble forecasts to inform risk-based operations of a reservoir in Northern California

Using ensemble forecasts to inform risk-based operations of a reservoir in Northern California

Contributed by:  Chris Delaney, Sonoma County Water Agency; John Mendoza, Sonoma County Water Agency; Brett Whitin, California Nevada River Forecast Center; Rob Hartman, Consultant Lake Mendocino is a reservoir located in Mendocino County, California, about 110 miles north of the City of San Francisco. This small 144 million cubic meter reservoir (Figure 1) releases water into the Russian River and provides both flood protection and water supply to downstream communities. Lake Mendocino is cooperatively managed by 2 government offices: the…

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Bridging the gap between forecasters and operational hydrologists: an OzEWEX summer institute project

Bridging the gap between forecasters and operational hydrologists: an OzEWEX summer institute project

Contributed by Melanie Loveridge, Bex Dunn and Yiling Liu How often do we assume that we understand the users’ needs, which may later be proven untrue? At the recent OzEWEX Australian Climate and Water Summer Institute – held in Canberra, Australia – we got the chance to bridge the gap between forecasters and operational hydrologists. Fifteen of us were invited to the OzEWEX summer institute, which provides early career researchers the chance to see the current and emerging data and…

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Flood forecasting systems around the world – Interview with Thomas Adams and Tom Pagano

Flood forecasting systems around the world – Interview with Thomas Adams and Tom Pagano

As the 1st Edition of the book “Flood Forecasting, A Global Perspective” has just been released, Thomas Adams (UCAR) and Tom Pagano (BoM) [see their bio below], editors, recall how the idea of the book was born and what they have learned when editing contributions describing national and regional flood forecasting systems from 11 different countries, as well as continental scale systems. This reference book points out challenges and ways forward to improve flood forecasting around the world. Maria-Helena Ramos…

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Ensemble forecasting experiments in a medium size tropical basin using MASTER rainfall forecasts

Ensemble forecasting experiments in a medium size tropical basin using MASTER rainfall forecasts

Contributed by Adalberto Meller and Fernando Fan, members of the LSH Research Group Guest Columnist Team As we have seem in our first post, great advances occurred in Brazil in the last years concerning the development of flood alert systems, but still today there is a low number of operational systems in terms of territory coverage, especially those using a probabilistic approach. One of the first researches in Brazil to evaluate ensemble flood forecasts in South America was presented by…

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