Category Archives: decision making

Risk aversion and decision making using ensemble forecasts

by Marie-Amélie Boucher and Vincent Boucher Assessing the value of forecasts is a very popular topic among the HEPEX community. The assessment of forecast value is highly dependent on the purpose served by the forecasts. For the specific problem of decision-making … Continue reading

Posted in decision making, economic value | 2 Comments

The elusive optimal decision rule and the impact of forecasting

Contributed by Micha Werner, IHE Delft and Deltares This winter just passed I was faced with the kind of dilemma of the type I am sure many find all too familiar. I was the designated driver one weekend for my … Continue reading

Posted in decision making, forecast communication, forecast users | 1 Comment

Understanding public responses to flood warnings

Contributed by Michael Cranston, RAB Consultants, Scotland The Winter 2015 floods in the United Kingdom and Ireland led to severe and widespread flooding for many communities.  The introduction of storm naming by the Met Office and Met Eireann the same … Continue reading

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The first online HEPEX game: try it yourself!

Contributed by Louise Arnal,University of Reading & ECMWF On September 26, 2016, at the IMPREX (IMproving PRedictions and management of hydrological EXtremes; a Horizon 2020 project) General Assembly in Crete, around 50 participants took part in an online educational game … Continue reading

Posted in activities, decision making, floods, forecast users | 4 Comments

The GloFAS Community Workshop – Supporting the Integration of Global Flood Forecasts Locally

By Rebecca Emerton, Liz Stephens and Hannah Cloke On the 4th of May, delegates from across the world gathered at the University of Reading for the first Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) community workshop, aimed at supporting the integration of … Continue reading

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WhatsApp chat between a forecaster and a modeller in hydrology

Posted in data assimilation, decision making, hydrologic models, operational systems | 3 Comments

El Niño leads to collaboration for developing ensemble flood forecasting in Peru

Contributed by Liz Stephens, Beatriz Revilla-Romero and Juan Bazo The Forecast-based Financing (FbF) project for Peru was initially set-up to assist communities vulnerable to flooding on the River Amazon in Iquitos, and to cold-waves in Puno. However, the emergence of the … Continue reading

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Because it’s Friday… comments invited!

Posted in decision making, forecast communication, forecast techniques, forecast users | 13 Comments

Results of a risk-based decision-making game in water management

By Louise Crochemore, Maria-Helena Ramos, Florian Pappenberger, Schalk-Jan van Andel and Andy Wood You might have participated in the water management game we played for the first time during the Hydrological ensemble prediction session at the EGU Assembly in 2013, … Continue reading

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99 ways to think more clearly?

by Anders Persson Another “international bestseller” that, just like Daniel Kahneman’s book on fast and slow thinking, for once deserves its name is Rolf Dorbelli’s “The Art of Thinking Clearly” from 2012, now in pocket. It is also available in … Continue reading

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