Category Archives: decision making

Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?

Contributed by Louise Arnal, University of Reading & ECMWF Editor’s Note: Don’t miss the brilliant cartoon summary at the bottom of this post! Over recent decades, seasonal streamflow forecasting methods have evolved and diversified, reflecting changes in our scientific understanding … Continue reading

Posted in decision making, ensemble techniques, forecast techniques, operational systems, seasonal prediction, verification | Leave a comment

Risk Communication for Cyclone Early Warning – Do people get the message, and understand what it means for them?

Contributed by Bapon Fakhruddin, Senior DRR and Climate Resilience Specialist, Tonkin+Taylor & Co-chair of the Risk Interpretation and Application of IRDR/ICSU Every year, New Zealand is impacted by ex-tropical cyclones (ETCs) – typically, one ETC makes landfall per year, between the … Continue reading

Posted in decision making, disaster risk reduction, forecast communication | Leave a comment

Using ensemble forecasts to inform risk-based operations of a reservoir in Northern California

Contributed by:  Chris Delaney, Sonoma County Water Agency; John Mendoza, Sonoma County Water Agency; Brett Whitin, California Nevada River Forecast Center; Rob Hartman, Consultant Lake Mendocino is a reservoir located in Mendocino County, California, about 110 miles north of the … Continue reading

Posted in case-studies, decision making, ensemble techniques, operational systems, risk management, water management | 3 Comments

Hydropower management in Brazil and water forecasts – Interview with Alberto Assis dos Reis

Alberto is an engineer and hydrologist at Cemig, a Brazilian power company headquartered in Belo Horizonte, the capital of the state of Minas Gerais, and is currently starting a PhD work at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG). His … Continue reading

Posted in decision making, forecast users, interviews, operational systems, seasonal prediction, water management | Leave a comment

Risk aversion and decision making using ensemble forecasts

by Marie-Amélie Boucher and Vincent Boucher Assessing the value of forecasts is a very popular topic among the HEPEX community. The assessment of forecast value is highly dependent on the purpose served by the forecasts. For the specific problem of decision-making … Continue reading

Posted in decision making, economic value | 2 Comments

The elusive optimal decision rule and the impact of forecasting

Contributed by Micha Werner, IHE Delft and Deltares This winter just passed I was faced with the kind of dilemma of the type I am sure many find all too familiar. I was the designated driver one weekend for my … Continue reading

Posted in decision making, forecast communication, forecast users | 1 Comment

Understanding public responses to flood warnings

Contributed by Michael Cranston, RAB Consultants, Scotland The Winter 2015 floods in the United Kingdom and Ireland led to severe and widespread flooding for many communities.  The introduction of storm naming by the Met Office and Met Eireann the same … Continue reading

Posted in decision making, floods, forecast communication, forecast users, operational systems | Leave a comment

The first online HEPEX game: try it yourself!

Contributed by Louise Arnal,University of Reading & ECMWF On September 26, 2016, at the IMPREX (IMproving PRedictions and management of hydrological EXtremes; a Horizon 2020 project) General Assembly in Crete, around 50 participants took part in an online educational game … Continue reading

Posted in activities, decision making, floods, forecast users | 4 Comments

The GloFAS Community Workshop – Supporting the Integration of Global Flood Forecasts Locally

By Rebecca Emerton, Liz Stephens and Hannah Cloke On the 4th of May, delegates from across the world gathered at the University of Reading for the first Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) community workshop, aimed at supporting the integration of … Continue reading

Posted in decision making, forecast users, meetings | Leave a comment

WhatsApp chat between a forecaster and a modeller in hydrology

Posted in data assimilation, decision making, hydrologic models, operational systems | 3 Comments