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Category: droughts

Streamflow flood monitoring and forecasting over Africa with little data

Streamflow flood monitoring and forecasting over Africa with little data

By Justin Sheffield (Princeton University) Recent flooding in Mozambique caused almost 100 deaths and displaced 150,000 people, with extensive damage to infrastructure. Forecasting such an event is a challenge because of the scarcity of on-the-ground data and lack of capacity in many parts of Africa, despite the great need. This post shows some results from the Princeton University African Flood and Drought Monitor (AFDM), which uses satellite precipitation and hydrological modeling to track large-scale surface hydrology, and weather/climate model output…

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For discussion: Are we getting close to integrating water and climate information?

For discussion: Are we getting close to integrating water and climate information?

Contributed by Tom Pagano, a HEPEX guest columnist for 2014 The opinions expressed here are solely the author’s and do not express the views or opinions of his employer or the Australian Government. Following on a post earlier this week about the upcoming Australian GEWEX meeting, another session will be on the topic of “Are we getting close to integrating water and climate information?” What do you think about this issue? Put your ideas in the comments below. Similar to the other post’s…

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Seasonal Streamflow Forecast Service influencing water decisions

Seasonal Streamflow Forecast Service influencing water decisions

Contributed by Paul Feikema Australian streamflows are among the most variable in the world. Streamflow forecasts are vital in helping water managers and users make informed decisions. They indicate the likelihood of being above or below defined criteria for making certain decisions and can help water managers make decisions such as choosing a water source or whether environmental flows should be allocated. In 2010, using the seasonal streamflow forecasts issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, ACTEW, a government-owned utility that…

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14th HEPEX Webinar: Projection of occurrence of extreme dry-wet years and seasons in Europe with stationary and nonstationary Standardized Precipitation Indices

14th HEPEX Webinar: Projection of occurrence of extreme dry-wet years and seasons in Europe with stationary and nonstationary Standardized Precipitation Indices

Speaker: Simone Russo Date and time: Wednesday, March 26, 2014, 15:00 UTC Register: https://ecmwf.webex.com/ecmwf/onstage/g.php?t=a&d=957913545 Abstract: The probabilities of the occurrence of extreme dry/wet years and seasons in Europe are estimated by using both the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized non-stationary Precipitation Index (SnsPI). The latter is defined as the SPI by fitting precipitation data with a non-stationary Gamma distribution, in order to model the precipitation time dependence under climate change. Daily precipitation outputs from five different regional climate…

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Definition of drought vulnerability for forecasting

Definition of drought vulnerability for forecasting

Contributed by Luis Garrote Forecasting droughts is an important part of the HEPEX activities. Like other natural hazards, the effects of drought have both a natural and social component.  Defining vulnerability to drought is complex and involves some measure of susceptibility and coping capacity. Vulnerability to drought varies spatially and is determined by natural factors, like the intensity and magnitude of the drought hazard that lead to its susceptibility, and by social factors that lead to exposure, coping capacity and…

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