Category Archives: economic value

Risk aversion and decision making using ensemble forecasts

by Marie-Amélie Boucher and Vincent Boucher Assessing the value of forecasts is a very popular topic among the HEPEX community. The assessment of forecast value is highly dependent on the purpose served by the forecasts. For the specific problem of decision-making … Continue reading

Posted in decision making, economic value | 2 Comments

A never-ending struggle – Improving spring melt runoff forecast via snow information

Contributed by David Gustafsson (SMHI), member of the SMHI Guest Columnist Team As long as we can remember, the Swedish hydropower hydrologists have tried to improve the spring melt runoff predictions by integrating snow measurements in their forecast models. Various … Continue reading

Posted in case-studies, columnist, data assimilation, economic value, forecast users, seasonal prediction, Unclassified | 1 Comment

Going commercial in hydrological forecasting

Contributed by Maria-Helena Ramos There are numerous actions supporting and promoting collaborations that aim to improve the uptake of weather and climate services. In meteorology, national weather services have made efforts to create closer ties between forecasters and users, and … Continue reading

Posted in economic value, forecast users, operational systems | 1 Comment

Hydrological Ensemble forecasting – financial investment vs return

by Hannah Cloke, Fredrik Wetterhall and Florian Pappenberger Within the HEPEX community we all understand very well that hydrological (ensemble) forecasting is hard work. Massive effort goes into developing the systems, huge resources go into running them and there is … Continue reading

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From ‘flood defence’ to ‘flood risk management’ …. What mixes of disciplines creatively co-working might contribute new insights to this ‘wicked problem’ and community resilience building?

By Lindsey McEwen (University of the West of England, Bristol) The floods of winter 2013-14 brought the tensions and schisms in UK flood management into strong focus. They also highlighted how flooding is associated with many discourses in the interactions … Continue reading

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Benefit achieved in the 2014 flood in Bangladesh

Contributed by S.H.M. Fakhruddin It has long been recognized that if society could have information on floods in advance, the adverse effects associated with them could be minimized. Prevalence of traditional forecast practices in various parts of the world reflects … Continue reading

Posted in economic value, floods | 1 Comment

Is a lack of competition affecting innovation in operational river forecasting?

Contributed by Tom Pagano, a HEPEX guest columnist for 2014 The opinions expressed here are solely the author’s and do not express the views or opinions of his employer or the Australian Government. I (with my co-authors) recently submitted a paper on … Continue reading

Posted in columnist, decision making, economic value, forecast communication, forecast techniques, multimodel, operational systems | Tagged , , | 14 Comments

On the economic value of hydrological ensemble forecasts

Contributed by Marie-Amélie Boucher, Maria-Helena Ramos and Ioanna Zalachori It is often assumed that probabilistic forecasts should lead to better water and risk management through increased benefits (economic or not) to users in their decision-making processes. Most often, this assumption … Continue reading

Posted in decision making, economic value, operational systems | 11 Comments

Definition of drought vulnerability for forecasting

Contributed by Luis Garrote Forecasting droughts is an important part of the HEPEX activities. Like other natural hazards, the effects of drought have both a natural and social component.  Defining vulnerability to drought is complex and involves some measure of … Continue reading

Posted in decision making, droughts, economic value, seasonal prediction | 2 Comments

The added value of probabilistic forecasts for navigation

Contributed by Dennis Meissner and Bastian Klein Traffic-related water-level forecasts are a fundamental part of traffic control and information systems for navigation on waterways. These forecasts allow navigational users to optimize the load capacity of their vessels as well as … Continue reading

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