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Category: economic value

Improving Hydro-Met services in developing countries

Improving Hydro-Met services in developing countries

Contributed by Florian Pappenberger, ECMWF.  It is in the DNA of every HEPEX-er to believe that better hydrological forecasts contribute to human wellbeing and economic prosperity. We also know that the forecasts themselves are not enough and need to be accompanied by adequate warnings and receptive civil societies (amongst many other factors). A particularly important role in ensuring that a forecast has impact, falls to the National Hydro-Meteorological Services (NMHSs). A recent guide by the World Bank focuses on the…

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Risk aversion and decision making using ensemble forecasts

Risk aversion and decision making using ensemble forecasts

by Marie-Amélie Boucher and Vincent Boucher Assessing the value of forecasts is a very popular topic among the HEPEX community. The assessment of forecast value is highly dependent on the purpose served by the forecasts. For the specific problem of decision-making related to flood mitigation, Murphy (1976, 1977) proposed the use of the cost-loss ratio framework. The vast majority of papers related to the assessment of forecast value for flood mitigation adopt this framework, so one could think that everything is…

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A never-ending struggle – Improving spring melt runoff forecast via snow information

A never-ending struggle – Improving spring melt runoff forecast via snow information

Contributed by David Gustafsson (SMHI), member of the SMHI Guest Columnist Team As long as we can remember, the Swedish hydropower hydrologists have tried to improve the spring melt runoff predictions by integrating snow measurements in their forecast models. Various measurements techniques have been used: traditional snow surveys with snow tube sampling; snowmobile and helicopter borne ground-penetrating radar and gamma-ray sensors; laser-scanning; and of course numerous attempts with satellite data (Photo 1). The usual conclusions have been, “yes we can…

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Going commercial in hydrological forecasting

Going commercial in hydrological forecasting

Contributed by Maria-Helena Ramos There are numerous actions supporting and promoting collaborations that aim to improve the uptake of weather and climate services. In meteorology, national weather services have made efforts to create closer ties between forecasters and users, and discuss how it can effectively enhance the market for weather services (see some examples of publications here and here). A “European research and innovation Roadmap for Climate Services” has been published early this year: “Climate services have the potential of…

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Hydrological Ensemble forecasting – financial investment vs return

Hydrological Ensemble forecasting – financial investment vs return

by Hannah Cloke, Fredrik Wetterhall and Florian Pappenberger Within the HEPEX community we all understand very well that hydrological (ensemble) forecasting is hard work. Massive effort goes into developing the systems, huge resources go into running them and there is much sweat over making decisions. Entire PhDs, or indeed careers, are spent on getting a system to work or to be used effectively. In most cases there are still mountains to climb before we reach our current goals. To motivate…

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