Category Archives: ensemble techniques

Ensemble prediction: past, present and future

Contributed by Fredrik Wetterhall and Roberto Buizza, ECMWF The work of producing meteorological ensemble forecasts started 25 years ago at ECMWF and NCEP, and it sparked a revolution in both weather forecasts and its many applications. To celebrate this occasion, … Continue reading

Posted in activities, data assimilation, ensemble techniques, forecast techniques, forecast users, historical, meetings, operational systems, verification | 1 Comment

Hydrologic similarity: Bridging the gap between hyper-resolution and hydrologic ensemble prediction

Contributed by:  Nate Chaney (Princeton University) and Andy Newman (NCAR) The ever-increasing volume of global environmental data and the continual increase in computational power continue to drive a push towards fully distributed modeling of the hydrologic cycle at hyper-resolutions (10-100 … Continue reading

Posted in ensemble techniques, forecast techniques, hydrologic models | Leave a comment

The Current State of Operational Global (and continental) Scale Flood Forecasting

contributed by Rebecca Emerton, PhD Student at the University of Reading and ECMWF After reading Chantal’s recent blog post discussing some of the limitations for international flood forecasting, and last week’s interview with Thomas Adams and Tom Pagano discussing their … Continue reading

Posted in ensemble techniques, floods, operational systems | 4 Comments

Ensemble forecasting experiments in a medium size tropical basin using MASTER rainfall forecasts

Contributed by Adalberto Meller and Fernando Fan, members of the LSH Research Group Guest Columnist Team As we have seem in our first post, great advances occurred in Brazil in the last years concerning the development of flood alert systems, … Continue reading

Posted in case-studies, columnist, ensemble techniques, floods | 2 Comments

Tracing The Origins of ESP

HEPEX Historical Hydrology Series, Edition 1 Contribution by Andy Wood, Tom Pagano, and Maury Roos, with special thanks to Mike Anderson Every day in the western US and elsewhere in the world, reservoir release decisions are made based in part … Continue reading

Posted in ensemble techniques, historical, seasonal prediction | 6 Comments

A timeline of developments at SMHI’s hydrological forecasting and warning service

Contributed by Göran Lindström (SMHI) and Henrik Spångmyr (SMHI, Midvatten AB), members of the SMHI Guest Columnist Team The Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) has a long tradition in developing customized products and services, as well as 24/7 production … Continue reading

Posted in columnist, ensemble techniques, forecast techniques, operational systems | 1 Comment

#FloodHack – Help improve the Global Flood Awareness System

Are you interested in global flood forecasting? Are you a good code hacker? Or perhaps a bit of both? Then maybe a Hackathon would be something for you? On the 16-17 January ECMWF invites everybody interested in improving the Global Flood … Continue reading

Posted in activities, announcements-events, ensemble techniques, forecast communication, forecast users, meetings | Leave a comment

Introducing… Gemma Coxon

For the second ‘Introducing…’ blog post I invited Gemma Coxon to introduce herself and her work to the HEPEX community. Gemma is an early-career researcher at Bristol University. Liz: Hello! Can you introduce yourself in a couple of sentences? Gemma: Hi, my name … Continue reading

Posted in early-career scientists, ensemble techniques, interviews | 5 Comments

From research to operations and vice versa: feedback from the HEPEX session at IUGG/IAHS workshop

Contributed by Maria-Helena Ramos, Fredrik Wetterhall and Andy Wood A Sunday in Prague can be spent in the tourist crowds on the main square, a leisurely stroll over the Charles bridge up to the castle to enjoy the stunning views, … Continue reading

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Should the forecaster modify an ensemble hydrological forecast? A case study.

Andrea is an operational forecaster at the US National Weather Service’s North Central River Forecast Centre. She writes about some very specific forecasting challenges that she and her colleagues are faced with on a daily basis. Introduction Devils Lake water … Continue reading

Posted in case-studies, ensemble techniques, floods, hydrologic models, operational systems | 3 Comments