Category Archives: ensemble techniques

Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?

Contributed by Louise Arnal, University of Reading & ECMWF Editor’s Note: Don’t miss the brilliant cartoon summary at the bottom of this post! Over recent decades, seasonal streamflow forecasting methods have evolved and diversified, reflecting changes in our scientific understanding … Continue reading

Posted in decision making, ensemble techniques, forecast techniques, operational systems, seasonal prediction, verification | Leave a comment

Using ensemble forecasts to inform risk-based operations of a reservoir in Northern California

Contributed by:  Chris Delaney, Sonoma County Water Agency; John Mendoza, Sonoma County Water Agency; Brett Whitin, California Nevada River Forecast Center; Rob Hartman, Consultant Lake Mendocino is a reservoir located in Mendocino County, California, about 110 miles north of the … Continue reading

Posted in case-studies, decision making, ensemble techniques, operational systems, risk management, water management | 3 Comments

Why are meteorologists apprehensive of ensemble forecasts?

Contributed by Anders Persson, Uppsala, Sweden A colleague in my world-wide meteorological network made me aware of a CALMet conference in Melbourne, i.e. dealing with meteorological education and training. Through the website you can access the program with more or … Continue reading

Posted in ensemble techniques, forecast communication, opinion | 2 Comments

Ensemble prediction: past, present and future

Contributed by Fredrik Wetterhall and Roberto Buizza, ECMWF The work of producing meteorological ensemble forecasts started 25 years ago at ECMWF and NCEP, and it sparked a revolution in both weather forecasts and its many applications. To celebrate this occasion, … Continue reading

Posted in activities, data assimilation, ensemble techniques, forecast techniques, forecast users, historical, meetings, operational systems, verification | 1 Comment

Hydrologic similarity: Bridging the gap between hyper-resolution and hydrologic ensemble prediction

Contributed by:  Nate Chaney (Princeton University) and Andy Newman (NCAR) The ever-increasing volume of global environmental data and the continual increase in computational power continue to drive a push towards fully distributed modeling of the hydrologic cycle at hyper-resolutions (10-100 … Continue reading

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The Current State of Operational Global (and continental) Scale Flood Forecasting

contributed by Rebecca Emerton, PhD Student at the University of Reading and ECMWF After reading Chantal’s recent blog post discussing some of the limitations for international flood forecasting, and last week’s interview with Thomas Adams and Tom Pagano discussing their … Continue reading

Posted in ensemble techniques, floods, operational systems | 4 Comments

Ensemble forecasting experiments in a medium size tropical basin using MASTER rainfall forecasts

Contributed by Adalberto Meller and Fernando Fan, members of the LSH Research Group Guest Columnist Team As we have seem in our first post, great advances occurred in Brazil in the last years concerning the development of flood alert systems, … Continue reading

Posted in case-studies, columnist, ensemble techniques, floods | 2 Comments

Tracing The Origins of ESP

HEPEX Historical Hydrology Series, Edition 1 Contribution by Andy Wood, Tom Pagano, and Maury Roos, with special thanks to Mike Anderson Every day in the western US and elsewhere in the world, reservoir release decisions are made based in part … Continue reading

Posted in ensemble techniques, historical, seasonal prediction | 6 Comments

A timeline of developments at SMHI’s hydrological forecasting and warning service

Contributed by Göran Lindström (SMHI) and Henrik Spångmyr (SMHI, Midvatten AB), members of the SMHI Guest Columnist Team The Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) has a long tradition in developing customized products and services, as well as 24/7 production … Continue reading

Posted in columnist, ensemble techniques, forecast techniques, operational systems | 1 Comment

#FloodHack – Help improve the Global Flood Awareness System

Are you interested in global flood forecasting? Are you a good code hacker? Or perhaps a bit of both? Then maybe a Hackathon would be something for you? On the 16-17 January ECMWF invites everybody interested in improving the Global Flood … Continue reading

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