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Category: ensemble techniques

HEPEX Advances and Applications at MODSIM

HEPEX Advances and Applications at MODSIM

At the 23rd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2019), from 1-6 December 2019 in Canberra, Australia, a HEPEX session highlighted recent work in hydrometeorological forecasting. Seline Ng from CSIRO discusses HEPEX highlights from MODSIM2019: We are glad to report that our session titled “Advances and applications in hydrometeorological forecasting” at the recent MODSIM2019 conference in Canberra, Australia went well, with a strong showing by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), CSIRO Land & Water and University of Melbourne. Ours…

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HEPEX 2019 Year in Review

HEPEX 2019 Year in Review

In the last HEPEX blog post of the year, we’re taking a look back at our highlights of 2019! This year, we published 25 blog posts, with contributions from HEPEX-ers across the globe. But first of all, a quick reminder of important HEPEX events coming up soon: The abstract deadline for EGU 2019 (3-8 May, Vienna) is fast approaching – don’t forget to submit your abstract by 15th January! Click here for information on the Hydrological Forecasting sub-division over the past 10…

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Flash flooding is a serious threat in the UK – here’s how scientists are tackling its prediction

Flash flooding is a serious threat in the UK – here’s how scientists are tackling its prediction

Contributed by Christopher J White, University of Strathclyde ; Michael Cranston, RAB; Laura Kelly, University of Strathclyde ; Linda Speight, University of Reading. It’s becoming a familiar scene on the news: sodden British people wading through streets up to their knees in flood water. From Stirling to Sheffield, many parts of the UK in 2019 felt the impact of severe surface water flooding – often referred to as flash flooding – that followed torrential rain. As the climate changes and the…

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Large ensemble simulations for the study of extreme hydrological events

Large ensemble simulations for the study of extreme hydrological events

Contributed by Karin van der Wiel, KNMI*. The investigation of extreme hydrological events is often limited by the length of observed records or model simulations. For this reason many statistical extrapolation methods have been developed. In a recent GRL paper we advocate a novel method for the study of extreme events, which does not rely on such extrapolations (Van der Wiel et al., 2019). In this blog post I invite you to take a slight step outside the HEPEX world…

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Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?

Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?

Contributed by Louise Arnal, University of Reading & ECMWF Editor’s Note: Don’t miss the brilliant cartoon summary at the bottom of this post! Over recent decades, seasonal streamflow forecasting methods have evolved and diversified, reflecting changes in our scientific understanding of streamflow predictability on seasonal timescales and our increasing computer power. The first operational model-based ensemble seasonal streamflow forecast, called the ESP1,2 (ensemble streamflow prediction), relies on the correct knowledge of the initial hydrological conditions (IHC; i.e. of snowpack, soil…

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