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Category: ensemble techniques

Hydrologic similarity: Bridging the gap between hyper-resolution and hydrologic ensemble prediction

Hydrologic similarity: Bridging the gap between hyper-resolution and hydrologic ensemble prediction

Contributed by:  Nate Chaney (Princeton University) and Andy Newman (NCAR) The ever-increasing volume of global environmental data and the continual increase in computational power continue to drive a push towards fully distributed modeling of the hydrologic cycle at hyper-resolutions (10-100 meters) [Wood et al., 2011]. In principle, this has the potential to increase model fidelity and lead to more locally-relevant hydrologic predictions (e.g., soil moisture at the farm level). However, for the foreseeable future, due to computational constraints this modeling…

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High-resolution flood forecasting in Sweden: a status update

High-resolution flood forecasting in Sweden: a status update

Contributed by Jonas Olsson (SMHI), member of the SMHI Guest Columnist Team Traditionally, hydrological activities (observations, modelling, forecasting) at SMHI have mainly focused on Sweden’s large rivers. The largest ones are Göta River with a catchment size of ~50 000 km² and Torne River with ~40 000 km² and then there are many (often regulated) with a catchment size of 20 000 to 30 000 km². The HBV model in combination with comparatively coarse-scale geographical and (in time and space) meteorological data has worked excellently…

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The Current State of Operational Global (and continental) Scale Flood Forecasting

The Current State of Operational Global (and continental) Scale Flood Forecasting

contributed by Rebecca Emerton, PhD Student at the University of Reading and ECMWF After reading Chantal’s recent blog post discussing some of the limitations for international flood forecasting, and last week’s interview with Thomas Adams and Tom Pagano discussing their new book describing national and regional flood forecasting systems around the world, I thought it would be interesting to add to this dialogue with a brief overview of the current state of large-scale (global and continental) operational flood forecasting. It…

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Ensemble forecasting experiments in a medium size tropical basin using MASTER rainfall forecasts

Ensemble forecasting experiments in a medium size tropical basin using MASTER rainfall forecasts

Contributed by Adalberto Meller and Fernando Fan, members of the LSH Research Group Guest Columnist Team As we have seem in our first post, great advances occurred in Brazil in the last years concerning the development of flood alert systems, but still today there is a low number of operational systems in terms of territory coverage, especially those using a probabilistic approach. One of the first researches in Brazil to evaluate ensemble flood forecasts in South America was presented by…

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Tracing The Origins of ESP

Tracing The Origins of ESP

HEPEX Historical Hydrology Series, Edition 1 Contribution by Andy Wood, Tom Pagano, and Maury Roos, with special thanks to Mike Anderson Every day in the western US and elsewhere in the world, reservoir release decisions are made based in part on seasonal reservoir inflow forecasts created using a operational technique called Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP, which originally stood for Extended Streamflow Prediction). ESP has become a key component of operational long lead prediction in a number of agencies (in the…

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