Browsed by
Category: experiment

Fictitious Forcings have Macondo in Trouble: A Hackathon Story

Fictitious Forcings have Macondo in Trouble: A Hackathon Story

Contributed by Georgy Ayzel.  Meteorological ensemble forecasts form the core of every system for hydrological ensemble prediction. There are multiple data sources where our meteorological ensembles could come from: historical observations, numerical weather prediction and climate models, or stochastic weather generators. Different sources serve different ways we want to communicate and deliver the information of possible runoff responses to various meteorological conditions. However, there is a source that is typically ignored in the modern landscape of ensemble runoff prediction –…

Read More Read More

Real-time forecasts for your holidays in Switzerland. Keep tuned and give feedback!

Real-time forecasts for your holidays in Switzerland. Keep tuned and give feedback!

In Switzerland the 1st of June represents the unofficial start of the flash-flood season. Against this, in 2013 we selected June 1st to launch our www.drought.ch platform on early recognition of critical droughts (see this post here). At that moment, a flood situation was going on in large parts of Switzerland (see our archived forecast here), and so less attention was given to that new product of us. This year I was planning to write sometimes here a blog post…

Read More Read More

“The Böögg Bang Theory” – or: Traditional seasonal forecasts in Switzerland

“The Böögg Bang Theory” – or: Traditional seasonal forecasts in Switzerland

by Massimiliano Zappa, a HEPEX 2015 Guest Columnist Dear readers, when last year the Paris-based HEPEX co-chair (the one with two first names) contacted me to ask whether I could have interest in writing a couple of columns for the HEPEX site I really underestimated how much fun this could be. I never thought in my life that I would be able to combine our Kings-Cake tradition on January 6th with my daily business (see my first post here). Also…

Read More Read More

Ensemble Hydrological Forecasting in China: Status and Prospects

Ensemble Hydrological Forecasting in China: Status and Prospects

Contributed by Qingyun Duan, Beijing Normal University, China The hydrometeorological services of the western countries, including the United States, Canada, Australia and many European countries, have already fully adopted ensemble forecasting methods operationally in their meteorological forecasts, and development and implementation of ensembles in their hydrological forecasts is well underway. Asian countries, particularly China, have been slow in taking on ensemble forecasting approach in their operational hydrological forecasts. As we enter the Year of the Sheep, I take this opportunity…

Read More Read More

How much can we expect from forecasting systems in the future? European floods of 2013 – revisited

How much can we expect from forecasting systems in the future? European floods of 2013 – revisited

Contributed by Fredrik Wetterhall In early June 2013, the Northern part of the Alps where hit with extreme rainfall that led to extensive flooding in Central Europe, with a death toll of 25 people and overall economic losses of €12bn. A classical synoptic weather pattern with a deep quasi-stationary low pressure system brought moist air towards the Northern side of the Alps. Orographic lifting led to very intense  precipitation over a large area where the soils were already saturated due…

Read More Read More