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Category: floods

OpenIFS@home: Using citizen science to improve our understanding of weather and hydrological forecasts

OpenIFS@home: Using citizen science to improve our understanding of weather and hydrological forecasts

The history of HEPEX is deeply connected to ensemble forecasting and uncertainty analysis. Indeed, none of us could even imagine a forecast without uncertainties (apart from McFool). One direction of research is to investigate the value in improving forecasts using a coupled system and truly understand the interactions between the atmosphere and the land surface whilst analysing the associated uncertainties. However, any analysis is limited by the resources one has available. To run a large number of ensembles, one would…

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Integration of Early Warning Systems and Young Professionals

Integration of Early Warning Systems and Young Professionals

Contributed by Nilay Dogulu, Lydia Cumiskey and Erika Roxana Meléndez Landaverde Early warning systems (EWSs) help society to prepare for, and respond to, all types of disasters, including those related to hydrometeorological hazards. The recent floods in Mozambique has clearly showed that EWSs are inevitable part of disaster risk management as they can save lives and minimize potential economic and environmental damages. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 specifically emphasizes the need to “substantially increase the availability of…

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Protect your city from floods with the IMPREXive game

Protect your city from floods with the IMPREXive game

We all know that the HEPEX community loves games and interactive challenges. We have already six games available in our Resources page. One of these games (“Pathways to running a flood forecasting centre: an adventure game”, by Louise Arnal & colleagues) has inspired a very nice online game developed by Arctik, a public relations, communications and evaluation consultancy, within the EU Horizon 2020 Imprex research project. Do you want to play it? In the game, you’ve landed a job as…

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Acqua Alta: Flooding and Flood Forecasting in Venice, Italy

Acqua Alta: Flooding and Flood Forecasting in Venice, Italy

Contributed by Luigi Cavaleri, Institute of Marine Science (CNR), Venice, Italy. Venice is sinking at a rate of 1-2 mm/y. Combined with the present rate of sea level rise, ~3mm/y, this leads to ever more critical conditions for the possibility of flooding. With half of the city now no more than 80 cm above the present mean sea level and a tidal spring excursion of about 1 metre, any small surge will imply flooding in large parts of the city. A…

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Fictitious Forcings have Macondo in Trouble: A Hackathon Story

Fictitious Forcings have Macondo in Trouble: A Hackathon Story

Contributed by Georgy Ayzel.  Meteorological ensemble forecasts form the core of every system for hydrological ensemble prediction. There are multiple data sources where our meteorological ensembles could come from: historical observations, numerical weather prediction and climate models, or stochastic weather generators. Different sources serve different ways we want to communicate and deliver the information of possible runoff responses to various meteorological conditions. However, there is a source that is typically ignored in the modern landscape of ensemble runoff prediction –…

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