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Category: forecast communication

Flash flooding is a serious threat in the UK – here’s how scientists are tackling its prediction

Flash flooding is a serious threat in the UK – here’s how scientists are tackling its prediction

Contributed by Christopher J White, University of Strathclyde ; Michael Cranston, RAB; Laura Kelly, University of Strathclyde ; Linda Speight, University of Reading. It’s becoming a familiar scene on the news: sodden British people wading through streets up to their knees in flood water. From Stirling to Sheffield, many parts of the UK in 2019 felt the impact of severe surface water flooding – often referred to as flash flooding – that followed torrential rain. As the climate changes and the…

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Verification of U.S. National Hurricane Center’s forecast advisories, 2006-2019

Verification of U.S. National Hurricane Center’s forecast advisories, 2006-2019

Below is a re-post of a blog post that I recently published at forecastverification.com, which is a small company that I operate in part-time (in addition to my hydrometeorologist job at Deltares). While hurricane forecasting is a little removed from hydrometeorology, I figured that the disciplines have sufficient overlap for this to be interesting to the HEPEX community also. Happy reading! Introduction Post Hurricane Irma’s passage over Florida, back in September 2017, I analysed the quality of the forecasts that…

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Protect your city from floods with the IMPREXive game

Protect your city from floods with the IMPREXive game

We all know that the HEPEX community loves games and interactive challenges. We have already six games available in our Resources page. One of these games (“Pathways to running a flood forecasting centre: an adventure game”, by Louise Arnal & colleagues) has inspired a very nice online game developed by Arctik, a public relations, communications and evaluation consultancy, within the EU Horizon 2020 Imprex research project. Do you want to play it? In the game, you’ve landed a job as…

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Improving Hydro-Met services in developing countries

Improving Hydro-Met services in developing countries

Contributed by Florian Pappenberger, ECMWF.  It is in the DNA of every HEPEX-er to believe that better hydrological forecasts contribute to human wellbeing and economic prosperity. We also know that the forecasts themselves are not enough and need to be accompanied by adequate warnings and receptive civil societies (amongst many other factors). A particularly important role in ensuring that a forecast has impact, falls to the National Hydro-Meteorological Services (NMHSs). A recent guide by the World Bank focuses on the…

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Is One Forecast Model Better Than Another?

Is One Forecast Model Better Than Another?

Blog post contributed by: Tim DelSole* The Sign Test Is one forecast model better than another? A natural approach to answering this question is to run a set of forecasts with each model and then see which set has more skill. This comparison requires a statistical test to ensure that the estimated difference represents a real difference in skill, rather than a random sampling error. Unfortunately, there are three problems with using standard difference tests: they have low statistical power,…

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