Category Archives: forecast communication

Understanding public responses to flood warnings

Contributed by Michael Cranston, RAB Consultants, Scotland The Winter 2015 floods in the United Kingdom and Ireland led to severe and widespread flooding for many communities.  The introduction of storm naming by the Met Office and Met Eireann the same … Continue reading

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#FloodHack – Help improve the Global Flood Awareness System

Are you interested in global flood forecasting? Are you a good code hacker? Or perhaps a bit of both? Then maybe a Hackathon would be something for you? On the 16-17 January ECMWF invites everybody interested in improving the Global Flood … Continue reading

Posted in activities, announcements-events, ensemble techniques, forecast communication, forecast users, meetings | Leave a comment

How the community contributes to urban flood control

Contributed by Verônica Bernardes (MSc in Civil Engineering – Urban Drainage – CEFET, Minas Gerais, Brazil) On September 4, 2015, I interviewed Solange Fonseca de Araujo, a specialist in Social Psychology, who works for the city of Belo Horizonte (the … Continue reading

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Because it’s Friday… comments invited!

Posted in decision making, forecast communication, forecast techniques, forecast users | 13 Comments

99 ways to think more clearly?

by Anders Persson Another “international bestseller” that, just like Daniel Kahneman’s book on fast and slow thinking, for once deserves its name is Rolf Dorbelli’s “The Art of Thinking Clearly” from 2012, now in pocket. It is also available in … Continue reading

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Real-time forecasts for your holidays in Switzerland. Keep tuned and give feedback!

In Switzerland the 1st of June represents the unofficial start of the flash-flood season. Against this, in 2013 we selected June 1st to launch our www.drought.ch platform on early recognition of critical droughts (see this post here). At that moment, … Continue reading

Posted in case-studies, columnist, droughts, experiment, floods, forecast communication, monitoring, operational systems | 2 Comments

Learning from past disasters

Contributed by Pavel Raška, J. E. Purkyně University in Ústí nad Labem, Czechia When I was asked to write a post to the HEPEX blog about the use of historical experience in current flash flood risk reduction, I firstly thought … Continue reading

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Using the Web for Environmental Big Data

Contributed by Claudia Vitolo and Wouter Buytaert (Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London) About 90% of all the data in the world has been generated over the last two years1. At this rate, in 2015 we are expected to … Continue reading

Posted in data systems, forecast communication, operational systems, projects | Leave a comment

What makes a forecast with uncertainty valuable to practitioners?

by Sarah Michaels (University of Nebraska) “the extent to which forecasts shape decision making under uncertainty is the true measure of the worth of a forecast” For forecasts to be useful requires they be scientifically justified, the information conveyed valuable … Continue reading

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How to bring out the “intuitive statistician” in every forecaster

by Anders Persson It is all Erik Andersson’s fault. In autumn 2010, he recruited me to update the “ECMWF User Guide”, a task that was completed the following May. I had booked a flight back home and was looking forward … Continue reading

Posted in decision making, forecast communication | 2 Comments