Lessons from calibrating a global flood forecasting system

Lessons from calibrating a global flood forecasting system

Contributed by Feyera Hirpa, University of Oxford. Hydrological models are key tools for predicting flood disasters several days ahead of their occurrence. However, their usability as a decision support tool depends on their skill in reproducing the observed streamflow. The forecast skill is subject to a cascade of uncertainties originating from errors in the models’ structure, parametrization, initial conditions and meteorological forcing. The Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) is an operational flood forecasting system that produces ensemble streamflow forecasts with…

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Acqua Alta: Flooding and Flood Forecasting in Venice, Italy

Acqua Alta: Flooding and Flood Forecasting in Venice, Italy

Contributed by Luigi Cavaleri, Institute of Marine Science (CNR), Venice, Italy. Venice is sinking at a rate of 1-2 mm/y. Combined with the present rate of sea level rise, ~3mm/y, this leads to ever more critical conditions for the possibility of flooding. With half of the city now no more than 80 cm above the present mean sea level and a tidal spring excursion of about 1 metre, any small surge will imply flooding in large parts of the city. A…

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We need better topography data for better flood inundation simulation

We need better topography data for better flood inundation simulation

Contributed by Dai Yamazaki. In recent years, technical barriers for executing flood inundation simulation are getting lower and lower, thanks to increasing computational power and increasing availability of satellite observation data. Flood inundation models are now being used for flood risk assessment and monitoring, such as making a flood hazard map at any location in the world and forecasting flood hazard in a real-time manner. The physics equations used in flood inundation models are relatively simple, compared to those of…

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Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?

Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?

Contributed by Louise Arnal, University of Reading & ECMWF Editor’s Note: Don’t miss the brilliant cartoon summary at the bottom of this post! Over recent decades, seasonal streamflow forecasting methods have evolved and diversified, reflecting changes in our scientific understanding of streamflow predictability on seasonal timescales and our increasing computer power. The first operational model-based ensemble seasonal streamflow forecast, called the ESP1,2 (ensemble streamflow prediction), relies on the correct knowledge of the initial hydrological conditions (IHC; i.e. of snowpack, soil…

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Hydrological forecasting at EGU 2018 – what not to miss next week!

Hydrological forecasting at EGU 2018 – what not to miss next week!

The EGU 2018 Annual General Assembly will take place next week, from 8–13 April 2017 in Vienna as usual. The HEPEX community will be represented in many ways, and below you will find a quick guide to the most relevant sessions for hydrometeorological forecasters throughout the week. The sub-session on hydrological forecasting consists of 5 oral and poster sessions and 1 pico session. Get the EGU app now and tag the sessions! The very first day will kick off with…

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