Category Archives: forecast users

Ensemble prediction: past, present and future

Contributed by Fredrik Wetterhall and Roberto Buizza, ECMWF The work of producing meteorological ensemble forecasts started 25 years ago at ECMWF and NCEP, and it sparked a revolution in both weather forecasts and its many applications. To celebrate this occasion, … Continue reading

Posted in activities, data assimilation, ensemble techniques, forecast techniques, forecast users, historical, meetings, operational systems, verification | 1 Comment

The elusive optimal decision rule and the impact of forecasting

Contributed by Micha Werner, IHE Delft and Deltares This winter just passed I was faced with the kind of dilemma of the type I am sure many find all too familiar. I was the designated driver one weekend for my … Continue reading

Posted in decision making, forecast communication, forecast users | 1 Comment

Understanding public responses to flood warnings

Contributed by Michael Cranston, RAB Consultants, Scotland The Winter 2015 floods in the United Kingdom and Ireland led to severe and widespread flooding for many communities.  The introduction of storm naming by the Met Office and Met Eireann the same … Continue reading

Posted in decision making, floods, forecast communication, forecast users, operational systems | Leave a comment

The first online HEPEX game: try it yourself!

Contributed by Louise Arnal,University of Reading & ECMWF On September 26, 2016, at the IMPREX (IMproving PRedictions and management of hydrological EXtremes; a Horizon 2020 project) General Assembly in Crete, around 50 participants took part in an online educational game … Continue reading

Posted in activities, decision making, floods, forecast users | 4 Comments

A user-oriented forecast verification metric competition

Forecast performance is one of the most central themes not only in day-to-day weather forecasting, but also in HEPEX. It is so important that we have devoted an entire chapter in our science and implementation plan to it (see here). … Continue reading

Posted in announcements-events, forecast users, verification | 1 Comment

The GloFAS Community Workshop – Supporting the Integration of Global Flood Forecasts Locally

By Rebecca Emerton, Liz Stephens and Hannah Cloke On the 4th of May, delegates from across the world gathered at the University of Reading for the first Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) community workshop, aimed at supporting the integration of … Continue reading

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A never-ending struggle – Improving spring melt runoff forecast via snow information

Contributed by David Gustafsson (SMHI), member of the SMHI Guest Columnist Team As long as we can remember, the Swedish hydropower hydrologists have tried to improve the spring melt runoff predictions by integrating snow measurements in their forecast models. Various … Continue reading

Posted in case-studies, columnist, data assimilation, economic value, forecast users, seasonal prediction, Unclassified | 1 Comment

Hydrological forecasting needs and practices in Brazil

Contributed by Fernando Fan and members of the LSH Research Group Guest Columnist Team Brazil is the largest country in South America, covering 8,515,767 km2, which corresponds to 47% of the continent. Two of the world’s major river basins are located … Continue reading

Posted in columnist, forecast users, operational systems | 5 Comments

#FloodHack – Help improve the Global Flood Awareness System

Are you interested in global flood forecasting? Are you a good code hacker? Or perhaps a bit of both? Then maybe a Hackathon would be something for you? On the 16-17 January ECMWF invites everybody interested in improving the Global Flood … Continue reading

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El Niño leads to collaboration for developing ensemble flood forecasting in Peru

Contributed by Liz Stephens, Beatriz Revilla-Romero and Juan Bazo The Forecast-based Financing (FbF) project for Peru was initially set-up to assist communities vulnerable to flooding on the River Amazon in Iquitos, and to cold-waves in Puno. However, the emergence of the … Continue reading

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