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Category: forecast users

Hydropower management in Brazil and water forecasts – Interview with Alberto Assis dos Reis

Hydropower management in Brazil and water forecasts – Interview with Alberto Assis dos Reis

Alberto is an engineer and hydrologist at Cemig, a Brazilian power company headquartered in Belo Horizonte, the capital of the state of Minas Gerais, and is currently starting a PhD work at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG). His PhD project involves also collaboration with three other organizations in Europe, strongly involved in Hepex: Irstea (France), Deltares (The Netherlands) and ECMWF (UK). He was recently visiting these organizations and, when he came to France, I took the opportunity to…

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Ensemble prediction: past, present and future

Ensemble prediction: past, present and future

Contributed by Fredrik Wetterhall and Roberto Buizza, ECMWF The work of producing meteorological ensemble forecasts started 25 years ago at ECMWF and NCEP, and it sparked a revolution in both weather forecasts and its many applications. To celebrate this occasion, more than 100 people from across the world joined the 28 speakers at ECMWF’s Annual Seminar 11-14 September held in Reading, UK. The theme was “Ensemble prediction: past, present and future” and the four days where filled with presentations and…

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The elusive optimal decision rule and the impact of forecasting

The elusive optimal decision rule and the impact of forecasting

Contributed by Micha Werner, IHE Delft and Deltares This winter just passed I was faced with the kind of dilemma of the type I am sure many find all too familiar. I was the designated driver one weekend for my daughter’s hockey team away match. Parents take turns to drive to away matches, and so I was all set to head off with four excitedly chatting thirteen year-olds. At breakfast, I saw on the internet that KNMI, the Dutch national…

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Understanding public responses to flood warnings

Understanding public responses to flood warnings

Contributed by Michael Cranston, RAB Consultants, Scotland The Winter 2015 floods in the United Kingdom and Ireland led to severe and widespread flooding for many communities.  The introduction of storm naming by the Met Office and Met Eireann the same year has since led to the names of Desmond, Frank and Eva becoming synonymous with the flooding that was experienced during that winter. Storm Desmond (5 December) brought major flooding to Cumbria and southern Scotland with a new 24-hour UK…

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The first online HEPEX game: try it yourself!

The first online HEPEX game: try it yourself!

Contributed by Louise Arnal,University of Reading & ECMWF On September 26, 2016, at the IMPREX (IMproving PRedictions and management of hydrological EXtremes; a Horizon 2020 project) General Assembly in Crete, around 50 participants took part in an online educational game called “How much are you willing to pay for a forecast?” designed by researchers from the University of Reading, ECMWF, Irstea and colleagues. This game was originally created as a paper game to be played during the Ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasting…

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