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Category: multimodel

Is One Forecast Model Better Than Another?

Is One Forecast Model Better Than Another?

Blog post contributed by: Tim DelSole* The Sign Test Is one forecast model better than another? A natural approach to answering this question is to run a set of forecasts with each model and then see which set has more skill. This comparison requires a statistical test to ensure that the estimated difference represents a real difference in skill, rather than a random sampling error. Unfortunately, there are three problems with using standard difference tests: they have low statistical power,…

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Can a single hydrological model structure provide realistic simulations everywhere? Insights from the Bertinoro workshop

Can a single hydrological model structure provide realistic simulations everywhere? Insights from the Bertinoro workshop

Contributed by Nans Addor and Gemma Coxon In April 2016, thirty-one scientists and one mankini-clad Martyn Clark (check here for a recent HEPEX interview with M. Clark) ascended the steep hill on which the italian town of Bertinoro is perched to attend the workshop on ‘Improving the theoretical underpinnings of hydrologic models’. The overarching aim of the workshop was to launch a new community initiative focused on developing a more structured and theoretically grounded approach to model development and testing (see Clark and…

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A Conversation with Martyn Clark – On Modeling, Forecasting, Life and Everything

A Conversation with Martyn Clark – On Modeling, Forecasting, Life and Everything

Contributed by Andy Wood and Maria-Helena Ramos On October 27th, 2015, we had the chance to sit at a local Boulder Colorado brewery and have a casual conversation with Martyn Clark. Martyn is a scientist in the Hydrometeorological Applications Program (HAP) at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado (see more about his research interests and career here).  He agreed to answer our questions and let us publish the conversation in the HEPEX blog.  The interview was…

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Ensemble streamflow forecasting in the Três Marias Basin, Brazil

Ensemble streamflow forecasting in the Três Marias Basin, Brazil

Contributed by Fernando Mainardi Fan Hydropower is the main electricity source of Brazil (80% to 90%) and an economic sector that shows a growing interest to use hydrological ensemble forecasts. Short-term power production is indeed adjusted using streamflow predictions of lead times up to 14 days (following ONS procedures). In case of floods, forecasts are used for reservoir safety and downstream/upstream flood control (in situ operations). Currently, rainfall-runoff models are replacing stochastic models for improved short-term forecasting. At the same…

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Is a lack of competition affecting innovation in operational river forecasting?

Is a lack of competition affecting innovation in operational river forecasting?

Contributed by Tom Pagano, a HEPEX guest columnist for 2014 The opinions expressed here are solely the author’s and do not express the views or opinions of his employer or the Australian Government. I (with my co-authors) recently submitted a paper on the “Challenges of Operational River Forecasting”, which discussed institutional conservatism as a result of perceived liability associated with public forecasts. The paper postulated that if forecasters are concerned about liability, they will favor standard operating procedures over innovative – but…

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