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Category: multimodel

First step towards a multi-model probabilistic flood forecasting system for Europe

First step towards a multi-model probabilistic flood forecasting system for Europe

Contributed by Anna Kauffeldt, Fredrik Wetterhall, Florian Pappenberger The European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) provides flood information to national authorities around Europe. Warnings are based on a fully operational probabilistic forecasting system which addresses uncertainties in weather forecasts by using multiple weather forecasts (deterministic and ensembles) from several centres. These forecasts are used to force a hydrological model (LISFLOOD) and discharge predictions are compared to return flows determined from long-terms runs with observed data to issue alerts if certain threshold…

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TIGGE and the multi-model approach in hydrology (a brief review)

TIGGE and the multi-model approach in hydrology (a brief review)

The multi-model approach is well established and popular in hydrological forecasting and modelling. For example, Shamseldin et al. (1997) showed different methods of combining the output of different hydrological models and this HEPEX post raises a number of challenges of multi-model approaches. Therefore, it comes as no surprise that the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE, Bougeault et al., 2010) archive, which contains ensemble forecasts by many different centres around the globe (access here), has been attracting increasing attention among…

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Multi-model approaches for river flow forecasting: blessing or burden?

Multi-model approaches for river flow forecasting: blessing or burden?

Contributed by François Anctil, Maria-Helena Ramos and Florian Pappenberger In ensemble prediction, the use of several models to estimate the total predictive distribution presents an approach in the quest of making available reliable and skillful forecasts to operational users. Here, by multi-model, we mean broadly: using multiple hydrological models (different structures, parameter sets, scales or boundary conditions, etc.), using multiple meteorological ensemble prediction systems (from different meteorological models or meteorological centers), using multiple ways of data assimilation, pre and post-processing…

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