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Category: operational systems

Verification of U.S. National Hurricane Center’s forecast advisories, 2006-2019

Verification of U.S. National Hurricane Center’s forecast advisories, 2006-2019

Below is a re-post of a blog post that I recently published at forecastverification.com, which is a small company that I operate in part-time (in addition to my hydrometeorologist job at Deltares). While hurricane forecasting is a little removed from hydrometeorology, I figured that the disciplines have sufficient overlap for this to be interesting to the HEPEX community also. Happy reading! Introduction Post Hurricane Irma’s passage over Florida, back in September 2017, I analysed the quality of the forecasts that…

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OpenIFS@home: Using citizen science to improve our understanding of weather and hydrological forecasts

OpenIFS@home: Using citizen science to improve our understanding of weather and hydrological forecasts

The history of HEPEX is deeply connected to ensemble forecasting and uncertainty analysis. Indeed, none of us could even imagine a forecast without uncertainties (apart from McFool). One direction of research is to investigate the value in improving forecasts using a coupled system and truly understand the interactions between the atmosphere and the land surface whilst analysing the associated uncertainties. However, any analysis is limited by the resources one has available. To run a large number of ensembles, one would…

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Integration of Early Warning Systems and Young Professionals

Integration of Early Warning Systems and Young Professionals

Contributed by Nilay Dogulu, Lydia Cumiskey and Erika Roxana Meléndez Landaverde Early warning systems (EWSs) help society to prepare for, and respond to, all types of disasters, including those related to hydrometeorological hazards. The recent floods in Mozambique has clearly showed that EWSs are inevitable part of disaster risk management as they can save lives and minimize potential economic and environmental damages. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 specifically emphasizes the need to “substantially increase the availability of…

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Protect your city from floods with the IMPREXive game

Protect your city from floods with the IMPREXive game

We all know that the HEPEX community loves games and interactive challenges. We have already six games available in our Resources page. One of these games (“Pathways to running a flood forecasting centre: an adventure game”, by Louise Arnal & colleagues) has inspired a very nice online game developed by Arctik, a public relations, communications and evaluation consultancy, within the EU Horizon 2020 Imprex research project. Do you want to play it? In the game, you’ve landed a job as…

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Drought Observatory: a Climate Service to improve environmental resilience

Drought Observatory: a Climate Service to improve environmental resilience

Contributed by Ramona Magno, IBIMET-CNR, Italy. Drought is a creeping and complex phenomenon with different types of impacts that imply a general reduction of water availability and involve either energy or food sectors, and on a wider scale the ecosystems. Under a climate change framework, the increasing frequency of droughts and their extended persistence need to be accounted for, addressing both adaptation and mitigation strategies. Drought dynamics reveal a time gap between the onset of a drought event and the…

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