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Category: risk management

Using ensemble forecasts to inform risk-based operations of a reservoir in Northern California

Using ensemble forecasts to inform risk-based operations of a reservoir in Northern California

Contributed by:  Chris Delaney, Sonoma County Water Agency; John Mendoza, Sonoma County Water Agency; Brett Whitin, California Nevada River Forecast Center; Rob Hartman, Consultant Lake Mendocino is a reservoir located in Mendocino County, California, about 110 miles north of the City of San Francisco. This small 144 million cubic meter reservoir (Figure 1) releases water into the Russian River and provides both flood protection and water supply to downstream communities. Lake Mendocino is cooperatively managed by 2 government offices: the…

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Flood forecasting in the UK: what should we learn from the winter 2015 floods? Interview with Hannah Cloke and David Lavers

Flood forecasting in the UK: what should we learn from the winter 2015 floods? Interview with Hannah Cloke and David Lavers

Contributed by Louise Arnal In November 2014, a HEPEX post entitled “Flood forecasting in the UK: what should we learn from the Winter 2013/14 floods?” was written by Liz Stephens and Hannah Cloke (it can be found here). This post presented the forecast lessons learnt after the winter 2013/14 floods in the UK. Two years later, progress has been made in flood forecasting, early warning and emergency response, but some challenges remain. In September 2016, the UK government Department for…

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“Ex tempore”- El Niño Ready Nations (ENRN)

“Ex tempore”- El Niño Ready Nations (ENRN)

Contributed by Bapon Fakhruddin Seasonal forecasting techniques today are far more advanced than they were 40 years ago, enabling ensembles of seasonal forecast simulations with state-of-the-art climate models that produce a probability distribution of possible outcomes at various lead times for slightly different initial conditions. This is thanks to the development of complex coupled ocean–atmosphere–land numerical models, modern statistical forecasting tools, sophisticated data assimilation systems and global observing systems that provide real-time data for forecast initialization. The forecast ensembles nowadays…

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UK and Ireland floods in December 2015 and January 2016

UK and Ireland floods in December 2015 and January 2016

by Richard Davies floodlist.com December 2015 saw three storms – Desmond, Eva and Frank – conspire to make it the UK’s wettest month on record. The heavy rainfall brought severe flooding to parts of Scotland, Ireland and northern England, where Honister Pass in Cumbria saw a record-breaking 341mm of rain in 24 hours (to 18:00 GMT, 05 December 2015). More than 20,000 properties were flooded as a result of the extreme weather. UK insurers estimate they will need to pay…

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UNISDR Science and Technology Conference on the Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030

UNISDR Science and Technology Conference on the Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030

by Bapon Fakhruddin, Science Committee Member, IRDR & Senior Specialist, Tonkin and Taylor International, New Zealand. The Sendai Framework, a landmark international framework adopted in 2015, calls for a shift from managing disasters to managing risks. This requires a more holistic approach to risks and a stronger focus on risk-creation processes, and it presents opportunities to approach disaster risk reduction (DRR) as an integral part of sustainable development. The UNISDR Science and Technology Conference on the implementation of the Sendai…

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