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The Impact of using Ensemble Generator Produced Precipitation Estimates on the Calibration of a Hydrological Model

The Impact of using Ensemble Generator Produced Precipitation Estimates on the Calibration of a Hydrological Model

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Contributed by Christopher J. Skinner The HEPEX Testbed Ensemble Representation of Rainfall Observation and Analysis Uncertainty was introduced in a previous blog post by Tim Bellerby. It aims to address some of the issues with representing uncertainty in precipitation observations by making use of ensemble simulation approaches and in the last few years I have been developing my research relevant to this Testbed, working with satellite rainfall estimates as one of Tim’s doctoral candidates. The doctoral research I undertook used…

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Testbed: Ensemble Representations of Rainfall Observation and Analysis Uncertainty

Testbed: Ensemble Representations of Rainfall Observation and Analysis Uncertainty

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The HEPEX Ensemble Representations of Rainfall Observation and Analysis Uncertainty Testbed was proposed at the 3rd HEPEX workshop, and formally launched during a side meeting of the 2009 EGU General Assembly. This cross-cutting testbed was established to look at the problem of representing uncertainty in precipitation observations through ensemble simulation approaches. It is a common feature of precipitation products, whether interpolated raingauge measurements, radar or satellite retrievals, that their associated errors are both spatially and temporally correlated. Point rainfall error…

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Testbed: New York City’s Water Supply System

Testbed: New York City’s Water Supply System

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The New York City Department of Environmental Protection is implementing a new Operations Support Tool (OST), a cutting-edge, integrated  monitoring and modeling system, to enable DEP’s water supply operators to make better risk-based management decisions about how to operate its water supply system. The system includes 19 reservoirs, several lakes and two major aqueducts.  It supplies high quality water for drinking and fire protection to nine million New Yorkers every day. The OST is designed to use hydrologic ensemble forecasts…

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HEPEX Verification Testbed and the Ensemble Verification System (EVS)

HEPEX Verification Testbed and the Ensemble Verification System (EVS)

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Contributed by Maria-Helena Ramos, James Brown and Julie Demargne Meteorological and hydrologic forecasts, as well as operational forecast products, must be verified at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Rigorous and objective verification help us answer: Are the forecasts unbiased/accurate? Are the forecasts more skilful than a chosen baseline? What are the strengths and weaknesses in the forecasts? What are the sources of error, bias and uncertainty in the forecasts? How are new science and technology improving the forecasts and the verifying observations?…

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Testbeds in HEPEX: lessons learned and way forward

Testbeds in HEPEX: lessons learned and way forward

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Contributed by Maria-Helena Ramos and Andy Wood How were testbeds initially defined? The testbed activity was first summarized in the 2006 Implementation Plan for The Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) (Wood et al., 2006). In the first two HEPEX workshops (Reading in 2004 and Boulder in 2005), it was decided that HEPEX’s projects and activities would be organized in pilot ‘testbeds’ (download here the proposal from the Boulder 2005 workshop). “The test beds are collections of data and models for specific…

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