Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?

Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?

Contributed by Louise Arnal, University of Reading & ECMWF Editor’s Note: Don’t miss the brilliant cartoon summary at the bottom of this post! Over recent decades, seasonal streamflow forecasting methods have evolved and diversified, reflecting changes in our scientific understanding of streamflow predictability on seasonal timescales and our increasing computer power. The first operational model-based ensemble seasonal streamflow forecast, called the ESP1,2 (ensemble streamflow prediction), relies on the correct knowledge of the initial hydrological conditions (IHC; i.e. of snowpack, soil…

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Ensemble prediction: past, present and future

Ensemble prediction: past, present and future

Contributed by Fredrik Wetterhall and Roberto Buizza, ECMWF The work of producing meteorological ensemble forecasts started 25 years ago at ECMWF and NCEP, and it sparked a revolution in both weather forecasts and its many applications. To celebrate this occasion, more than 100 people from across the world joined the 28 speakers at ECMWF’s Annual Seminar 11-14 September held in Reading, UK. The theme was “Ensemble prediction: past, present and future” and the four days where filled with presentations and…

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What to look for when using forecasts from NWP models for streamflow forecasting?

What to look for when using forecasts from NWP models for streamflow forecasting?

By Durga Lal Shrestha, James Bennett, David Robertson and QJ Wang, members of the CSIRO Columnist Team There have been a few posts on NWP performance lately, and so we thought we’d add our perspective. We’ve been working closely with the Bureau of Meteorology to extend their new 7-day deterministic streamflow forecasting service to an operational ensemble streamflow forecasting service. One of the fundamental choices we have to make is the source of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs). This is not…

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FcstVerChallenge: will you join the HEPEX team?

FcstVerChallenge: will you join the HEPEX team?

You may have read Florian’s recent post on the WMO’s “forecast verification challenge”. In short: the WMO’s World Weather Research Programme set a challenge to develop new user oriented verification scores, metrics, diagnostics or diagrams. Any entries have to be submitted by the end of October and the winning entry will be awarded with a “keynote” presentation at the 2017 WMO verification meeting in Geneva as well as free passage into that event. Some HEPEX-ers got together last week and…

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A user-oriented forecast verification metric competition

A user-oriented forecast verification metric competition

Forecast performance is one of the most central themes not only in day-to-day weather forecasting, but also in HEPEX. It is so important that we have devoted an entire chapter in our science and implementation plan to it (see here). I am, in particular, often forwarding the link to these blog posts when I am explaining (or trying to explain) forecast properties to a forecast user. Nevertheless, many of the scores remain abstract. Whilst a forecast bias may still be…

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