Category Archives: verification

Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?

Contributed by Louise Arnal, University of Reading & ECMWF Editor’s Note: Don’t miss the brilliant cartoon summary at the bottom of this post! Over recent decades, seasonal streamflow forecasting methods have evolved and diversified, reflecting changes in our scientific understanding … Continue reading

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Ensemble prediction: past, present and future

Contributed by Fredrik Wetterhall and Roberto Buizza, ECMWF The work of producing meteorological ensemble forecasts started 25 years ago at ECMWF and NCEP, and it sparked a revolution in both weather forecasts and its many applications. To celebrate this occasion, … Continue reading

Posted in activities, data assimilation, ensemble techniques, forecast techniques, forecast users, historical, meetings, operational systems, verification | 1 Comment

What to look for when using forecasts from NWP models for streamflow forecasting?

By Durga Lal Shrestha, James Bennett, David Robertson and QJ Wang, members of the CSIRO Columnist Team There have been a few posts on NWP performance lately, and so we thought we’d add our perspective. We’ve been working closely with … Continue reading

Posted in columnist, verification | 3 Comments

FcstVerChallenge: will you join the HEPEX team?

You may have read Florian’s recent post on the WMO’s “forecast verification challenge”. In short: the WMO’s World Weather Research Programme set a challenge to develop new user oriented verification scores, metrics, diagnostics or diagrams. Any entries have to be … Continue reading

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A user-oriented forecast verification metric competition

Forecast performance is one of the most central themes not only in day-to-day weather forecasting, but also in HEPEX. It is so important that we have devoted an entire chapter in our science and implementation plan to it (see here). … Continue reading

Posted in announcements-events, forecast users, verification | 1 Comment

How good is my forecasting method? Some thoughts on forecast evaluation using cross-validation based on Australian experiences

Contributed by David Robertson, James Bennett and Andrew Schepen, members of the CSIRO Guest Columnist Team As hydrological forecasting researchers, we are often excited when we develop new methods that lead to forecasts with smaller errors and/or more reliable uncertainty … Continue reading

Posted in columnist, verification | 12 Comments

Analogues are the new deterministic forecasts

by Marie-Amélie Boucher, a HEPEX 2015 Guest Columnist According to Krzysztofowicz (2001), “Probabilistic forecasts are scientifically more honest [than deterministic forecasts], enable risk-based warnings of floods, enable rational decision making, and offer additional economic benefits.” More than 10 years later, I … Continue reading

Posted in columnist, verification | 5 Comments

“The Böögg Bang Theory” – or: Traditional seasonal forecasts in Switzerland

by Massimiliano Zappa, a HEPEX 2015 Guest Columnist Dear readers, when last year the Paris-based HEPEX co-chair (the one with two first names) contacted me to ask whether I could have interest in writing a couple of columns for the … Continue reading

Posted in columnist, decision making, experiment, forecast techniques, monitoring, seasonal prediction, verification | Tagged | 6 Comments

How can the Brier score know my inner thoughts???

Contributed by Anders Persson, a HEPEX guest columnist for 2014 Inspired by Tom Pagano’s interview with Beth Ebert on verification 22 August, I would support Beth’s enthusiasm by pointing out some more exciting features in the verification statistics: 1. The … Continue reading

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For discussion: Have we reached the limits of what can be forecast in water, weather and climate?

Contributed by Tom Pagano, a HEPEX guest columnist for 2014 The opinions expressed here are solely the author’s and do not express the views or opinions of his employer or the Australian Government. This post invites a discussion around the topic “Have … Continue reading

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