Hydrological forecasting, ensembles and related topics at AGU 2018: Time to write your abstracts

Contributed by Andy Wood and Flavio Lehner, NCAR 

You can help to advance the science of hydrological prediction, forecasting systems, and our understanding of the value of ensembles through the presentation of your recent related scientific and practical developments, applications and approaches at the AGU Fall Meeting in 2018.  The meeting will be held on December 10-14, 2018.

Why should I go to AGU next year?

  1. For once, AGU will be held in Washington D.C. instead of San Francisco. This is much closer than usual if I do not hail from the western U.S. or Pacific Rim countries — and D.C. is a remarkable, iconic city.
  2. AGU’s sessions on hydrologic forecasting and ensembles are trending up in quality and number
  3. HEPEXers always go out to socialize, which is obviously a lot of fun
  4. Where else can I just go check out some talks on tectonophysics or volcanology if my brain needs a break from hydrology? AGU is, as they say, ‘yuge’ … with cutting edge science, workshops, and other attractions.
  5. I suffer from FOMO and don’t want to take a chance on not being where the action is.

Important: Abstract submission deadline is 1 August 2018 23:59 EDT/03:59 +1 GMT.


Hydrologic prediction and related sessions (where does one draw the line?) may be offered under a variety of different AGU Sections, including Hydrology, Global Environmental Change, Earth and Space Science Informatics, Atmospheric Sciences, and Natural Hazards among others. AGU also tries to help attendees find sessions using the concept of SWIRL (Sessions With Interdisciplinary Research Linkages) themes to “curate your experience at Fall Meeting”. There are even Scientific Neighborhoods to hang out in this year.

Although we can’t highlight all of the sessions or talks that could be of interest to the HEPEX community (and invite you to search the online program), the tables below include a number of sessions that are related to forecasting, climate and weather extremes, ensembles in various contexts, and hazard management.

In Hydrology, closest to home, sessions having to do with forecasting, prediction, floods, droughts, and ensembles include the following.

Session Title Summary
H005 Advances in Ensemble Flood Forecasting, Flood Estimation, and Risk Analysis Continuation of a long-running AGU HEPEX-themed session, this year focusing on ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasting to support short-term flood mitigation and long-term flood risk management. HEPEX conveners — Andy Wood, Marie-Amelie Boucher, Paulin Coulibaly.
H007 Advances in Integrated Observations, Modeling and Predictions for Weather, Climate, and Impact Assessments Uses of observations and models in addressing extreme hydrometeorological events, and developments of observational and information systems, and the integration of observations from various sources are of high interest.
H049 Drought Process and Prediction: Vulnerability, Hazard, and Risk All aspects of drought monitoring, diagnosis, and prediction, including the physical mechanisms, S2S predictability, probabilistic and deterministic drought recovery modeling and forecasting, drought variability, and diagnosis and attribution of drought risk. HEPEX conveners Hamid Moradkhani among others.
H057 Extreme Rainfall and Flooding: Monitoring, Forecasting, Risk Assessment, and Socioeconomic Consequences Past and prospective changes in intense rainfall and floods under environmental changes; predicting these events over short- to long-term periods; quantifying uncertainty/error in intense rainfall and flood prediction; case studies and risk assessment.
H062 Global Floods: Forecasting, Monitoring, Risk Assessment, and Socioeconomic Response Supports Global Flood Partnership (GFP) — global flood forecasting, monitoring and impact assessment; modeling and remote sensing, socioeconomic sciences, hazard response, and preparedness fields and risks
H092 New Methods for Hydrologic Drought Characterization, Prediction and Assessment Studies exploring the characterization and quantification of hydrologic drought and low streamflow in support of water resources management
H073 Hydrometeorological simulation and forecasting of atmospheric rivers and their impacts: Processes, simulations, and observations Forecasting and observing the impacts of ARs: coupled atmospheric-hydrologic modeling for streamflow prediction during ARs; impacts on water resources; forecast skill and predictability near real-time data assimilation and parameter estimation techniques to improve forecasts, and other topics
H105 Remote Sensing Applications for Water Resources Management, Including Droughts, Floods and Associated Water Cycle Extremes Use of satellite, airborne and ground-based sensor networks to: estimate hydrologic resources in the U.S. and internationally to improve water resources management; and support risk-based decision making. Topics: floods and droughts, water supply monitoring and forecasting; water balance and more …
H106 Research, Development and Evaluation of the National Water Model and Facilitation of Community Involvement Continental-scale hydrologic prediction related topics including remote sensing, data assimilation, anthropogenic effects, big data, decision support, calibration, machine learning, model testing and evaluation – and community involvement.
H132 Water and Society: Using Hydroclimatic Forecasts to Enhance Water Resources Decision-making Improving the use of forecast information through: improving relevance to decision makers, quantifying forecast uncertainty; integrating forecasts with users’ institutional settings; improving delivery technologies; and using forecasts for the operation of water systems. HEPEX convener Paul Block among others.
H139 Weather/Climate Ensembles and Downscaling Methodologies for Hydrologic Prediction Systems: Methods, Process Understanding, Applications and Verification Ensemble methods and downscaling of multi-model climate and weather projections and their relevance in improving hydrologic modeling and prediction across spatial and temporal scales. HEPEX convener Firas Saleh.

In Global Environmental Change and Atmospheric Science, several interesting sessions that focus on ensembles in the climate projection context are being offered, as well as sessions on weather and climate forecasting – here’s a sample.

GC039 Ensemble Modeling Approaches to Studying the Earth System Response to Anthropogenic Forcing Large Ensemble (LE) climate simulations with Earth System Models (ESMs) are now possible. Focus on ESM LE-related science and studies, including the role of internal climate variability in future projections – but also seeking perspectives from other ensemble-application communities (eg, HEPEX). Convener: Flavio Lehner
A065 Large Ensemble Climate Model Simulations: Exploring Natural Variability, Climate Change Signal, Extremes and Compound Events at various Spatio-Temporal Scales Using Large Ensembles (LEs) with Earth System Models or Regional Climate Models to assess the role of internal variability for future climate projections, including extreme events.
A048 Extreme Weather Events: Forecast skill, Uncertainty Quantification and Impact Modeling On the importance of statistical and dynamical ensembles in forecasting extreme events and the influence of forecast uncertainty on managing severe weather.
A097 Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction of weather and climate Seasonal, and more recently also sub-seasonal (weeks 3-4) predictions: science and applications, for example in the water resource sector.

In Natural Hazards, a number of sessions relate to drought and flood modeling and monitoring, and management of extremes and related risks.

NH002 Advances in Drought Risk Management: Forecasting, Monitoring, Assessment, and Response Applications for managing drought risk, from drought forecasting to new response methods. Goal is to formulate future research prospects for the drought risk community.
NH020 Integrated Flood Modeling Integrative and inter-disciplinary science to tackle the physical, socio-economic, and managerial processes that determine the severity of a flood event.
NH030 Remote Sensing: Monitoring, Prediction, and Hazard Mitigation of Hydroclimatic Extreme Events Applications of remotely-sensed data for characterization and modeling of hydroclimatic extreme events.
NH031 Research, Risk Analysis, Monitoring, Forecasting, and Mitigation of Natural Hazards in a Dynamic, Changing World Integrative and inter-disciplinary session on natural hazards, spanning topics from current event attribution to vulnerability assessments to understanding of hydroclimate drivers and strategic responses to natural hazards.

This list is just a sample — you can search for other sessions by AGU Section here or by various search terms here.

Abstracts can be submitted here.  Hope to see many of you there!

Other Deadlines and Tips

  • A number of travel grants may be available, especially for students, with the earliest deadlines closing 8 August 2018.
  • Book hotels and flights early to get good rates.  The AGU website offers guidance and more information on venues, hotels, and local transportation.

If you don’t see your session listed and want to promote it, please include a title and link in the comment response to this blog post.


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