Women In Hydrological Forecasting: a Call for Action

Women In Hydrological Forecasting: a Call for Action

Today is International Women’s Day, and many professional societies and communities of practice reflect on issues of gender balance, recognising achievements without regard to divisions, whether national, ethnic, linguistic, cultural, economic, political or otherwise. Within HEPEX, our then HEPEX columnist Bettina Schaefli reflected on gender balance in the EGU, raising the “big open question is here of course what we can do about this in our everyday work?”. Hydrological forecasting has many more individuals that deserve mentioning. However, if we…

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Hydrological Forecasting at MODSIM2019, Canberra, Australia

Hydrological Forecasting at MODSIM2019, Canberra, Australia

Contributed by Seline Ng, CSIRO, Australia. We are excited to announce the upcoming MODSIM 2019 conference session “Advances and Applications in Hydrometeorological Forecasting”. Join us for an enjoyable time of stimulating discussions and interesting talks! We look forward to contributions from HEPEX-ers relating to any of the following: (i) improved methods in the field of hydrometeorological forecasting, (ii) post-processing of forecasts, (iii) verification of forecasts, (iv) real-time flood forecasting, (v) practical and theoretical applications of forecasts in water management, hydropower…

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Large ensemble simulations for the study of extreme hydrological events

Large ensemble simulations for the study of extreme hydrological events

Contributed by Karin van der Wiel, KNMI*. The investigation of extreme hydrological events is often limited by the length of observed records or model simulations. For this reason many statistical extrapolation methods have been developed. In a recent GRL paper we advocate a novel method for the study of extreme events, which does not rely on such extrapolations (Van der Wiel et al., 2019). In this blog post I invite you to take a slight step outside the HEPEX world…

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Improving forecasting of flooding from intense rainfall through interdisciplinary research

Improving forecasting of flooding from intense rainfall through interdisciplinary research

Contributed by Dr Linda Speight, University of Reading. In England and Wales alone 3 million properties are at risk of surface water flooding. Having spent the past year speaking to a number of experts in the field (see below), I feel confident saying the universal biggest challenge facing everyone involved in forecasting flooding from intense rainfall is communicating the uncertainties around the location and timing of flood events. Whether you are a researcher looking at developing novel ways to visualise…

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Is One Forecast Model Better Than Another?

Is One Forecast Model Better Than Another?

Blog post contributed by: Tim DelSole* The Sign Test Is one forecast model better than another? A natural approach to answering this question is to run a set of forecasts with each model and then see which set has more skill. This comparison requires a statistical test to ensure that the estimated difference represents a real difference in skill, rather than a random sampling error. Unfortunately, there are three problems with using standard difference tests: they have low statistical power,…

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