To start of 2016 on a positive note, HEPEX is happy to invite contributions to a special issue in HESS on sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting. The special issue is a follow-up on the workshop in Norrköping in September 2015 as well as the workshops in Koblenz in 2014 and 2015. The issue will accept contributions that covers any of the topics listed below:
- User needs for seasonal forecasts (for example, hydropower, agriculture, navigation, insurance companies, groundwater, and health and safety-risk reduction)
- Statistical, dynamical and hybrid systems for predicting seasonal meteorological and hydrologic variables
- Progress in sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions
- Pre-processing, post-processing and calibration methods to enhance seasonal forecasting skill (including the use of techniques for data assimilation, initialisation and hindcasts)
- Predictive sensitivity analyses on monthly to seasonal timescales
- Ensemble forecast verification
- Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction capabilities for the management of water availability and water quality
- Climate and water services providing and using sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts
- Communicating seasonal meteorological and hydrological forecasts in water management and risk-based decision-making and impact-based forecasts
NOTE: the deadline for submission has been extended to 30 June 2017. To enter the special issue you will need to select “Sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting” in the special issue drop-down list when submitting the paper. All articles submitted to the special issue will undergo a normal review process and be published as soon as they are accepted. Note that HESS changed their publication charges as of 1 January 2016, and they now charge per page of the final paper rather than the discussion paper.
Supported by advances in numerical climate prediction, seasonal hydrological forecasting is steadily progressing in response to ever-increasing needs for sustainable water management to manage climate variability and adapt to societal and environmental change. Key examples of such challenges arise almost every year, such as the struggles of water managers to operate through extreme drought conditions in California, USA, and southeastern Brazil. With this motivation in mind, this special collection of papers focuses on the use of sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts for hydrological applications. It targets relevant issues on the development of seasonal forecasting systems, such as climate forecast downscaling and calibration, streamflow post-processing, scenario building, forecast verification, model development, stakeholder dissemination and communication for decision-making. The collection will be of interest for researchers, practitioners and program managers with a stake in hydrological forecasting and water resources planning. It draws on outcomes from the HEPEX Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting Workshop hosted by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) in September, 2015, but also welcomes topical papers from elsewhere.