10th Anniversary HEPEX Workshop
Download the abstracts here: 10th Ann. Workshop HEPEX Book of Abstracts
The PDF files of the presentations are available below.
Tue, 24 June, 08:30–18:30
|Session 1 – A decade of HEPEX: from concepts and community to operations
|Chairpersons: A. Wood (NCAR), J. Thielen (JRC)
|09:00-09:15||Welcome speeches||R. Hartman (NWS) & NOAA representatives|
|09:15-09:45||A decade of HEPEX – a review of what we have achieved (invited) (PDF) (PDF)
||Schaake (Consultant) & Buizza (ECMWF)
|09:45-10:00||A decade of HEPEX – new developments to build the community (hepex.org) (PDF)
|10:00-10:30||Ensemble forecasts applied to real-world decision making: the New York City Water Supply Operations Support Tool (OST) (demo) (invited) (PDF)
|10:30-10:50||The European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) (invited) (PDF)
|10:50-11:10||Coffee, tea and biscuit break|
|Session 2 – Emerging ensemble forecast systems|
|Chairpersons: J. Demargne (Hydris)
|11:10-11:30||Achievements, challenges and vision on ensemble forecasting at Quebec’s government (PDF)||Fortier (CEHQ)
|11:30-11:50||Integrated forecast and reservoir management: The Inform System (PDF)
|11:50-12:10||A system for continuous hydrological ensemble forecasting (SCHEF) for Australia (PDF)
|12:10-12:30||MMEFS operational hydrologic ensemble forecasting at the Ohio River Forecast Center (PDF)
||Adams (Fairfield Technologies)
|14:00-14:30||Game 1 – A risk-based decision-making game relevant to water management (PDF available on the Resources page)
||Crochemore, Ramos, van Andel, Pappenberger & Wood
|Session 2 – Emerging ensemble forecast systems (cont.)|
|Chairpersons: J. Demargne (Hydris)
|14:30-14:50||Preliminary results of the implementation of the hydrologic ensemble forecast system at the Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center (PDF)
||Jones (NWS ABRFC)
|14:50-15:10||Operationalizing the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) for internal forecaster guidance in both short-term flood forecasting and long-term water supply (PDF)
||Fickenscher (NWS CNRFC)
|15:10-15:30||Seamless forecasting of floods and droughts on a global scale (PDF)||Wetterhall (ECMWF)
|15:30-17:00||POSTERS (with COFFEE, TEA and BISCUITS)|
|Session 3 – The future of hydrologic ensemble prediction
|Moderators: A. Wood (NCAR), J. Thielen (JRC), M.H. Ramos (IRSTEA)
|17:00-17:50||Breakout work groups|
|17:50-18:30||Plenary reporting and discussion of work groups|
|18:30||End of the day – Bus back to hotel – Free evening|
Wed, 25 June, 08:30–18:30
|Session 4 – HEPEX science and application
|Chairpersons: D. Lucatero (Univ. Copenhagen), S.J. van Andel (UNESCO-IHE)
|09:00-09:30||The rise of ensemble forecasting at ECMWF in the 10 years of HEPEX and applications (invited) (PDF)||Buizza (ECMWF)
|09:30-09:50||Research meets practice: the power lies in necessity (PDF)
|09:50-10:10||Lesson-learnt from developing a multi scale ensemble hydrologic forecast system customized for optimization of low control operations (PDF)||Voisin (PNNL)
|10:10-10:30||Application of ensemble predictions in US Bureau of Reclamation water management decisions (invited) (PDF)
|10:30-10:50||Coffee, tea and biscuit break|
|Session 5 – Visualization and assessment of ensemble forecasts|
|Chairperson: SJ. van Andel (UNESCO-IHE), D. Lucatero (Univ. Copenhagen)|
|10:50-11:10||Combine ensembles with inundation mapping to visualize flood forecast uncertainty (PDF)
||Curtis (WEST Consultants)
|11:10-11:30||End-user focused evaluation and development of ensemble flood forecasts (PDF)
||Stephens (Univ. of Reading)
|11:30-11:50||Estimating predictive hydrological uncertainty by dressing deterministic and ensemble forecasts: a comparison, with application to Meuse and Rhine (PDF)
|12:10-12:45||Game 2 – HEPS challenges the wisdom of the crowds: the PEAK-Box Game. Try it yourself! (PDF available on the Resources page)
||Zappa, Liechti, Pappenberger, van Andel & Ramos
|Session 6 – Making usable predictions for decisions under uncertainty|
|Chairpersons: N. Voisin (PNNL), J. Verkade (Deltares)
|14:00-14:20||NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS): effectively communicating uncertainty via products and information (PDF)
|14:20-14:40||How not to ruin your whitewater kayak season (PDF)
||Boucher (Univ. of Chicoutimi)
|14:40-15:00||Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts (PDF)||Wetterhall (ECMWF)
|15:00-15:20||Hydrologic ensemble forecasts for decision makers: experimental applications in California and Nevada for hydropower management, water distribution, and flood risk management (PDF)
||Haynes (NWS CNRFC)
|15:20-16:50||POSTERS (with COFFEE, TEA and BISCUITS)|
|Session 7 – Decision support application of ensemble forecasting|
|Chairpersons: J. Verkade (Deltares), N. Voisin (PNNL)
|16:50-17:10||Ensemble streamflow prediction experience at Bonneville Power Administration (PDF)
|17:10-17:30||Using ensemble forecasts to minimize risk and support decision making under uncertainty in hydroelectric power operations (PDF)
||Lowry (Sandia National Laboratories)|
|17:30-17:50||Cost of inflow forecast uncertainty for day ahead hydropower production scheduling (PDF)
|17:50-18:10||Using ensemble forecasts and reforecasts in actual practice – Examples from planning and operations (PDF)
|18:30||End of the day – Bus back to hotel|
|19:30||Evening collaboration session
|Session 8 – New directions in ensemble prediction
|Chairpersons: F. Wetterhall (ECMWF), J. Thielen (JRC)
|09:00-09:30||Data assimilation in ensemble water forecasting – Challenges and opportunities (invited) (PDF)
|09:30-09:50||Conditional weather resampling method for ensemble streamflow forecasting (PDF)
|09:50-10:10||Toward ensemble forecasting of water quality (PDF)
|10:10-10:30||New Initiatives (Introduction PDF) (Global High-Res.DEM_Schumann)
||J. Thielen (JRC)
|10:30-10:50||Coffee, tea and biscuit break|
|Session 9 – Seasonal ensemble forecasting applications|
|Chairperson: F. Wetterhall (ECMWF)
|10:50-11:10||Seasonal hydrometeorological ensemble prediction system: forecast of irrigation potentials in Denmark (PDF)
||Lucatero (Univ. Copenhagen)
|11:10-11:30||Developing climate-informed ensemble streamflow forecasts over the Colorado River Basin (PDF)
||Miller (NWS CBRFC)
|11:30-11:50||Generating forecast-guided stochastic scenarios of monthly streamflows out to 12 months (PDF)
|11:50-12:10||A climate index weighting method for ensemble forecasts based on a bayesian resampling approach (PDF)
||Bradley (Univ. of Iowa)
|Session 10 – Ensemble forecasting for flash floods|
|Chairpersons: L. Stephens (Univ. of Reading)
|14:30-14:50||Hydrologic ensembles for flash flood warnings at ungauged basins based on convection-permitting NWP forecasts (PDF)||Demargne (Hydris)
|14:50-15:10||Linking the hydrologic and atmospheric communities through probabilistic flash flood forecasting (PDF)
||Hogsett (Univ. of Iowa)
|15:10-15:30||Verification of clustering methods applied to hydrological ensemble forecasts (PDF)
||van den Bergh (RMI Belgium)
|15:50-16:30||Plenary discussion of HEPEX organizational matters: Science and Implementation Plan, leadership & roles, blog, communication, meetings, summer school, handbook, teaching HEPS (training tools, games), and more.|
|16:30||End of the workshop|
List of posters (some available in PDF to download):
- A flood inundation climatology at continental scale, Schumann et al.
- A strategy to overcome adverse effects of autoregressive updating of streamflow predictions, Li et al.
- adaptACTION: Simulate decision making by integrating climate change impact
knowledge, CEHQ (PDF)
- Assimilation of satellite quantitative precipitation estimates and streamflow into distributed hydrologic models for flood prediction, Zhang and Lee.
- Climatological analysis of model precipitation from NCEP GEFS reforecast, Luo and Zhu.
- Comparison of different efficiency criteria for hydrological ensemble prediction assessment, Xu et al.
- Comparison of quantitative precipitation estimates derived from rain gauge and radar derived algorithms for operational flash flood support over the Hawaiian Islands, Streubel & Kodama (PDF)
- Conveying coherent flood forecast products from deterministic and ensemble forecast systems to users: challenges and opportunities at operational forecast centers, Henkel.
- Creating an Ensemble of Flash Flood Guidance Models to Assess Physical Flash Flood Processes and Model Skill in the Ohio River Basin, Barber & Hein (PDF)
- Data fusion with gaussian processes: an approach to merging GEFS and CFS precipitation forecasts, Gong et al.
- Determining and communicating the uncertainty of event-based, areal precipitation, Amburn and Lang.
- Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions? Try it yourself!, van Andel et al. (PDF available on the Resources page)
- Does consideration of the initial condition uncertainty improve multimodel ensemble forecasts?, Thiboult and Anctil.
- Does post-processing deterministic numerical weather predictions at multiple time steps lead to better ensemble rainfall forecasts? Robertson et al.
- Ensemble data assimilation for operational water quality forecasting, Kim et al. (PDF)
- Ensemble modeling to improve hydropower generation and flood forecasts in the American River Basin, Curtis et al. (PDF)
- Ensemble space-time simulation of rainfall from gauge observations with extensive missing records, Wang et al.
- Evaluation of the satellite-based Global Flood Detection System (GFDS) for estimating river discharge, Romero-Revilla et al. (PDF)
- Exploring how the question influences the decision on the basis of probabilistic forecasts, Alfonso et al.
- Global flood forecasting and detection in support to a Global Flood Partnership, Thielen-del Pozo et al.
- On the effective use of probabilistic forecasts in flood forecasting, warning and response systems, Verkade et al. (PDF)
- Operating rules derivation considering hydrologic uncertainty: taking the Jinsha River System as example, Ji et al.
- Operational implementation of the Hydrological Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS), Fresch et al. (PDF)
- Relating seasonal streamflow forecast skill to uncertainties in initial conditions, future forcings, and hydrologic modelling, Wood et al.
- Statistical techniques in water forecasting, Wang et al.
- Verification of precipitation forecasts from two numerical weather prediction models as forcing inputs to hydrologic modeling in the Middle-Atlantic River Forecast Center, Siddique et al.
- Verification of water supply forecast tools in the Colorado River Basin: ensemble streamflow prediction and hydrologic ensemble forecast system, Nielson & Werner (PDF)